Fan's Obeservations and Opinions

Ted Sorensen, JFK's speech writer, passed away today

2010-10-31T19:22:00.004-04:00

"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.

My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.

Finally, whether you are citizens of America or citizens of the world, ask of us here the same high standards of strength and sacrifice which we ask of you. With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on Earth God's work must truly be our own."

These words entered immortality as soon as they were heard on Jan 20th, 1961. Delivered by the youngest President so far in this great nation, this speech was actually drafted by a 32-year-old young man. Today, that "young man", who had his most glorious days as "an intellectual blood bank" of the Kennedy brothers, Ted Sorensen, passed away at age 82.

Say "the Olympic champion"

2010-10-29T22:39:00.005-04:00

Very shockingly, maybe even more than Henin's "pseudo-retirement", I heard that Elena Dementieva annouced her retirement earlier today.

I have never really paid attention to her: her and Myskina's 2004 French Open final, the ugliest Grand Slam final I've ever seen, gave me such a hard-to-shake-off shadow. And that almost defines her in me: she is not the one.

She chokes, as all other Russian women do. What makes her the most unfortunate is that she doesn't have the SERVE, which I believe is just an insurmountable obstacle, unless--there is ONLY ONE exception in a hundred years of tennis history--you are Rafael Nadal.

One of many amazing things Elena achieved is that since she made it to the main draw of a Grand Slam event for the first time (1999 Australian Open), she had played in 46 consecutive Grand Slams (main draw) until this year's Wimbledon, the longest consective major attendance record in tennis. Ironically, it was her unbelievable consistency and fitness that betrayed her in this year's French, forciing her to retire in the semifinal against Francesca Schiavone.

At that time, the idea that "she may not get another big shot at majors" passed my mind. But stil,l I have to say, retiring now may prove to be the most regretful decision she has ever made. With the Sisters aging, Henin's bumpiness, Cljisters' "human" nature outside of NYC and all those -vic, or -ackis which essentially has NO GAME whatsoever, if she stays and waits, maybe, just maybe, she can win one, once and for all.

Of course she LOVES tennis. And very different from Henin, she never let the pursuit of glory overwhelm the noble, gentle human spirit. For such persons, it is probably easier to stay. BUt anyway, she decided it was not worth the wait. And she called it a career. She is convinced she got the memorables, and the valuables.

Still remember her heroine-ic performance (winning all her 3 matches, doubles and singles) in the neck-to-neck 3-2 Fed Cup final against France? And remember her career-defining gold-medal match in Beijing Olympics over Safina? She saves her best for her great country. And she steps down as eternal for that.

Even if you are as cynical about Russian tennis as me, please, from now on, DON'T SAY "THE BEST NEVER", say "the Olympic champion".

Korean War_#1

2010-10-20T21:04:00.002-04:00

The 60th anniversary of China's intervention of "Korean War". To this day, I still think the Korean War was one of the most intriguing wars of all time. It was so dramatic. In the end, the outcome of war is determined by economic powers reflected in coordination between units, logistics and the quality of fighting weapons, but human factors do play BIG roles and sometimes have irreversible effects. MacArthur lived in his own fantasies after the Inchon Landing. All it took was a supreme leader that had guts to challenge the US, risky but smart tactics and strategies of Marshal Peng and super-disciplined and tenacious Chinese Army to completely turn things around.

More thoughts on that later.

TennisTrivia_Oct 18.2010

2010-10-18T01:19:00.005-04:00

Murray has now won 6 Masters Series (now the "ATP World Tour Masters 1000" events) titles. Among the 18 players who won 3 or more Masters, only Marcelo Rios, Andrei Medvedev, and Thomas Enqvist ended up not winning a Grand Slam champion. (There is one other active player, Nicholay Davydenko, who won 3 Masters so far, but hasn't ever played a major final.) The statistics seems to suggest that Murray should be able to win a Grand Slam title, sooner or later. But statistics can be deceptive. Researchers should always pay attention to the "structural change", i.e. a threat to the comparativity of data across time and space. Prior to 2007, the Masters has "best-of-five-sets" final, after that, best-of-three-sets. All 5 Ws of Murry came in the "best-of-three-sets". It doesn't make a huge difference as all previous rounds in Masters were, and are, "best-of-three-sets". But I would argue that, finals are after all different. Winning a "best-of-five-sets" final means differently than a three-setter. Think about Rafa vs Roger Miami 2005. I totally believe that Murray can win a major. It is just that it is not at all automatic that 6 Masters Ws translate to even one Grand Slam victory.

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China Open has long expressed his ambition to become the 5th Slam. But the biggest optimist will be disheartened seeing the empty seats in the Center Court. The typical tennis audience in US/Europe--the middle-aged upper-middle class just don't have time and the enthusiasm for tennis.

But I found another thing. The majestic "Lotus" Court built for the Beijing Olympics is a light-hearted failure. It sits "north-south", a traditional rule for any "important" architecture. But a tennis court should NEVER be built "north-south", for the court will be half-shaded all day on any sunny day! I found it extremely annoying for players, and for TV broadcasters and viewers as well. Now the Chinese authority is considering building an even bigger 15000-seat white elephant, hopefully they will fix this obvious mistake this time.

The addiction to bodybuilding

2010-10-06T19:28:00.002-04:00

Bodybuilding is addictive. After a hardcore workout and a big meal, I am convinced that four consecutive days in absence of gym is the likely cause of my the physical and mental disorder in last couple of days. Maybe it is true for every sport. But I feel especially strongly for bodybuilding. Or maybe, it feels strange and uncomfortable to go without anything that has become an integral part of your life.

Put it in a "theoretical perspective"--you know I am teasing the theorists--life is itself a Bayesian process of choosing between multiple equilibria. There is the "sporty+good appetite+hi protein intake+health diet" equilibrium, and that "sedentary+little appetite+working for longer hours but less happily" equilibrium, to name two. I have got used to the "hi" equilibrium again--Thanks JHK, though I feel you won't see this--since this June, so departing from it temporarily makes me "sick". And I went back today to "equilibrate", though I am super busy and stressful. But I also know that going to gym, or doing other sports regularly, takes discipline, passion, and an attitude. If one is in the "indifferent" world, or deep in mental acedia, or can't resist the temptation of "more papers/lab/programming", the "low" equilibrium is also stable, and it is hard to jump-start to the "hi" one.

I strongly encourage every PhD, boys and girls, to follow the previous path. Because the freedom to choose our way of life may be the only justification of the huge opportunity cost we forgo to pursue this degree. And it is downright stupid not to live a meaningful, and disciplined life, in which the loyalty to one sport, and the love to one genre of arts, are essential.

I suddenly recalled the lesson from Yingjiou Ma, then mayor of Taipei, the current President of ROC when meeting wit him in 2005. He may not be a great President, but he is a noble person and a great teacher.

Winter plan

2010-10-02T22:39:00.002-04:00

Washington DC and NYC Redux.

From Dec 18 to Jan 3. Air tickets reserved.

Reunion with Chenqi and Tony, AMNH, NMNH, NMAH, National Holocaust Museum, Library of Congress, George Mason U, Met, MOMA etc etc.

I am excited!!

China's Moon Mission

2010-10-01T21:35:00.004-04:00

On the 61st anniversary of the founding of People's Republic of China, at exactly the beginning of CCTV Evening News (7 pm, Beijing time, this 30-min news program used to be China's only nationwide news program. Today, it is still the most-widely-received and most-viewed TV program, at least TV news program in the nation.), China launched its "Appolo 2". This timing showed again that the Chinese Communist Party has gradually fashioned its propaganda machine.

This will undoubtedly stir a new wave of nationalistic pride. I can still remember when the frightening patriotic fervor aroused by "Chang'e I" I felt from various media channels and through video-chatting across the Pacific. The unfortunate thing is, for the general public, and even for many highly-educated leftists, the priceless national pride, seems also costless.

People dismissed the astronomical budget of the 2008 Olympics the same way they dismiss the cost of the moon mission now. The most ironic thing about Chinese leftists is that they will put a price tag on human life, say tens of thousands of miners' lives, and say "it still pays to 'DEVELOP", but they turn a blind eye, willfully, on the price tag of the national pride.

To make things worse, the government fools the general public. There is an article saying that the project only cost $2-3 billion RMB so far, "merely several kilometers of newly-built subway in Beijing". Nonsense. The Appolo Project of U.S. was back in 1960-1970s. The total nominal expenditure amounts to $19,408,134,000. Using the CPI in 1972, the year of the last moon landing, the "cost" is at least $99,000,000,000, which translates to $650,000,000,000 RMB. Appolo has 17 missions. China's "Chang'e" now has two. How come the "cost" is merely 2-3b RMB?! Is the whole thing only a film??

The First Year in retrospect

2010-09-19T10:00:00.002-04:00

/**Part of it was written on April 28, another part on June 12, I edited and finished it on Sept. 18.**/

When the winter term ended, I wrote down the following words:

"I am not sure whether it is more proper to call today or August 20th the last day of the first year. I don't have the mood to celebrate, I only hope there won't be any "ex post" worry about 672. But I can't help imagining, and planning my summer. It may be the most stressful summer ever in my life. But just because it will be busy and stressful, I should try to enjoy myself, live a disciplined life and get things done, and feel proud for myself more often."

But as it turned out, my summer was pretty bad. Boring SRA work, though I worked for a terrific scholar and terrific mentor. Running into an interpersonal nightmare was not fun. I left behind such a bomb in summer 2008, and I paid an unmeasurable price for that. Hopefully this time it won't be like that, I hope there won't be so many narrow-minded people, but only future will tell. But on the other hand, there are important lessons: you can never be too be humble, and too patient. Being a scholar is less independent than most people think. Your research depends so much on the bureaucracy and people around you, many of whom not so easy to please, or you simply don't like. But you have to get around them. ....

The worst may be my depression. The vicious circle of doing nothing, using Internet to fill the void, and feeling guilty, being afraid to reach out and meet people, etc. On one of those worst days, I finally decided to do something, and I went to the CCRB. And accidentally, I talked with one stranger in a group. I couldn't recall which one, and I couldn't remember I went to talk with him first or he came to talk with me. I am now friends with them, at least some of them. I went to their "life group", and some other church activities. Unfortunately I just went to the Sunday service once, and I didn't go to Lake Huron with them for July 4th holiday. But still, I feel really grateful for that totally random encounter. It gets me some really good friends with whom I believe I can have lots of interesting conversations. And it gets me a really good training partner. I remember the sheer joy of spending time with them would soon be overcome by the loneliness again. And I still didn't really find the motivation, and long-lasting joy from doing meaningful work until the "prelim pressure" overshadowed my mind. But on the other hand, I feel really really good and proud that I restarted bodybuilding/workout, or as they say, lifting. Equally significantly, it opens a window for me. I am talking about Christianity. More on that later.

The summer ended on high notes though. The prelim review was stressful, meaningful, fruitful, and in retrospect, successful. Started later than planned, progressed really inefficiently and slowly for a long time, it got its momentum short after July 4th. I remember I realize how much work I had to do, or how much I hadn't understood, in days leading to the July 4th holiday. And through the 40-days-or-so of overall intensive work, I felt my level of understanding of the modern macro foundation, and its mechanics, price theory, general equilibrium and game theory, really improved significantly. In those days, I always thought "Gosh! This is what I should have understood/got when I studied this. What was I doing?", and "I might just get what some already got or understood seven, eight months ago, of course they don't need to study much, if at all, now". And today, I still wouldn't say I am confident about getting everything the first year education should give me, all the knowledge underlying the problems (classic theory, the core theoretical understanding of economics). But at least I know, I went through a lot of things, and I should meet a lot of situations and realize, or recall, "I have done this before".

I passed both theory prelims, the first of many hurdles en route to a professional economist. My closest friends got what they deserved too. But there are surprises, on "both sides". Maybe just as one friend says, "if there is no surprise, it is not an 'exam'". Exams, just like big sports events, are cruel.

The title says, "the first year in retrospect". I shouldn't just talk about the summer, but days further back. The typical one-liner description is "the first year is tougher than I expected", and definitely not satisfactory. It started with a strange sense of indifference and boredom that could be explained by tremendous psychological trauma and fear left from the application days (the first half of 2009), and the strange feeling of being a "host" and old guy here.

Jim encouraged me in the beginning of the year to go to as many seminars as I could. I felt regretful not to follow his advice, as I still feel illiterate about the fields I am definitely interested in.

The core courses were poorly scheduled, especially in the first term. On Mondays and Wednesdays we had class from 8.30 to 10 and then 10-11.30. In the second term, we also had a 8.30 class--macro II. It is firmly in my opinion that such arrangements, along with the 8-10 A.M. finals, put students at disadvantage, unnecessarily so. But of course, the main point here is not to complain, but to confess: I didn't really try hard to match the schedule, go to sleep early to have my brain function optimally, or "normally" during class time. I always felt that if my brain felt good in the first class (metrics I), it would feel drained in the second class. Sometimes I was almost asleep in the first class, but felt much better in the second. Later in the term, I began to skip a lot of metrics lectures, because I couldn't get up that early. That per se didn't do much damage as I knew all those things before. But the "staying up late-->no energy for morning classes-->spend lots of time understanding the notes" vicious circle was what I hated the most, and I should confess the most deeply.

I really couldn't explain why I just didn't want to go to bed, even if I felt so tired and dizzy at mid-night or 1 A.M., and I wasn't there studying. I couldn't really explain, or tell what I was doing in late night: some meaningless light readings, the compulsion of checking news, tennis sites over and over, and something unspeakable. I tried to analyze it, but I realize that may get me additional troubles. Because as I think about it, like now, I feel that it is so easy to get to that "don't-want-to-get-to-sleep" mode, no matter you've had a good day, a productive day, an exhausting day, or a bad day. It is not easy for people to control their emotional flows, their mood, and people feel guilty too easily. It is sad and frustrating to realize these. To live a disciplined and responsible life, and be happy and motivated most of the time, is not easy. There seems nothing to prevent me from falling into the self-inflicted dizzy and low-productivity spiral. A good mix of working, reading, building muscles, and having good time with friends will keep me in the good state most of the time, which is more than I can ask for.

A few lines on specific regrets:
For 601 (decision theory), I definitely overlooked it. I could feel the insufficient practice on those materials every frequently, even now in the first two weeks of the second year.

On Lones, his course seemed loose and easy-going, you don't need to do work on regular basis and still could enjoy the lectures. But you were not actually REALLY enjoying it, or connecting with him, if you didn't do the work. He actually expected us to do a lot of work, the standard materials, and his own materials as well.

For 603 (general equilibrium), I learned the whole thing in late July and early August on my own. You can imagine how bad I felt about the me during those months and how proud I was after "being enlightened".

For 604 (mechanism design), I am not confident if I really got it. But maybe I wouldn't need those things too much in the future.

People say D.Stol is a nice person and a helpful mentor. I found him a little intimidating and not very easy to understand. But he asked for basic understanding and hard work, things I am not bad at. :) CH is a really good teacher. I regret for not putting enough time into the papers he mentioned, because of the distractions from history. But I think the course would be a better one if he could move through the "consumption" and "investment" more quickly and spent more time on RBC and the subsequent materials. I am sure he has a lot to say about "sticky price models", "real vs nominal rigidities" etc.

All in all, two lessons about all these first-year class mess: 1) I stayed up late, sometimes till 4 or 5 A.M. for no reason (can be attributed to stress and depression maybe?); 2) I didn't study enough outside the classroom. That resulted in not being able to follow the lectures very well. And that frustration translated to less and less motivation.

The economic history class was a totally different story. That was definitely the highlight of this year, curriculum-wise. Not only did I get the only "A" in this year in that class, but I felt I really learned a lot, though, honestly, I didn't read all the required readings. The professor is gentle, humble, encouraging, and extremely knowledgeable. I like his style. It takes talent, perseverance, patience and years of accumulation, talent to reach his level I think. And he seems to suggest that the environment has changed so much that we won't be trained to become that type of scholar. I am not sure that is a progress or a loss. I did a little Russian wheat project for that class. Judging by its "preliminary" report, it was downright ugly. I realize that it is really hard to form a logical structure to proceed and get things done within a pretty limited amount of time. But I think that will be still in the back of my mind. I will go back to that when I have time.

Lastly, I must say that my classmates were impressive, they are more than I expected. I really should have more eye-opening conversations with them.

I decided to run into finishing this article as I felt empty, void, and sort of depressed again coming back from Ma Lin's mid-autumn party. There are lots more to say, like the Clio Conference, my indebtedness to Lin, Ji, Bob and Jim, the valuable friendships with Taejun and Changkeun and a few other classmates, good conversations with lots of classmates etc, but I'd better stop here. As tomorrow is there waiting for me to embrace!

Best moments in life

2010-09-19T03:56:00.002-04:00

*This was written on July 16th, 2010.

Last night, I watched a little bit ESPY: the American/ESPN version of the "Laureus Sports Award".

"Isner-Mahut's 11 hours" won the "best record-breaking performance" over Usain Bolt's "9'58" and Roger Federer's "15", among others. All ESPY awards were voted by fans. I really didn't know if I were to vote, which I would vote for. "Best" record-breaking performance, in terms of how hard this can be achieved? How hard it can be broken? Best inspirational? Or how "impressive"/"sensational" it is?

Maybe I will also go with "Isner-Mahut" because this match, much more than Federer's 15, stirs attentions much beyond tennis fans. And choosing it over Bolt is simply because I think he can run still faster.

I kind of feel for John. Time and again he mentioned he didn't want to be best remembered as "the guy who won the longest match in tennis history". But in this "media era", the moment when you got the most media attention doesn't always coincide with the moment you are the most substansively accomplished. This "longest match record" label, it seems, is impossible to be pulled off. How to really go beyond the shadow of this glory, first mentally, then realistically, is a tough question. Maybe, only if he can win a Grand Slam.

Realistically, he may still be best remembered for this match even with a Grand Slam, but he knows, if he wins a major, or a Master, or even, some final 8, final 4 finishes at the majors, those moments, so much more than June 24, 2010, will be the best moments in life.

On Rafa winning the US Open

2010-09-19T03:53:00.001-04:00

This was written on Sept. 13th.

World No 2 Novak Djokovic put in a heroic effort to fight off 20 break points out of 26. But he, just like the Swede Robin Soderling last year in Roland Garros ("French Open" for the laymen), couldn't deny what seemed undeniable in the past fortnight but unimaginable just 8 months ago--Rafael Nadal, 24, won the 2010 US Open, becoming just the third man after Andre Agassi and Roger Federer in the history of tennis, to win ALL FOUR Grand Slams on four different surfaces!!!!!!!! He also became the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open in the same year!

The historic significance of this US Open final could go on and on. And every letter of this article should be capitalized and made font 36. Age 24, career Grand Slam, 9 major titles, Olympic singles gold medalist (08 Beijing), the winner of the "greatest tennis match ever played" (08 Wimbledon), and with all those unbelievable records on clay, he put himself right there in the GOAT (greatest of all time) debate, even if he hangs up his racket tomorrow.

Even at the start of this tournament, he is regarded by most fans and experts not to have the sheer TALENT, the VERSALITY, the CAPACITY, to win the whole thing. But over the years,he had transformed his backhand, polished his volley, flattened his forehand, learned to step up on fast surfaces, improved his return, and finally, in this year's Open, speeded up his serve by 10, 15 miles per hour! The message is, YOU GOTTA BELIEVE IN YOUSELF, and answer His call. Your every effort, God (whatever that may be) knows it, He will keep Juan Martin del Potro home, render Stan Wawrinka an assasin dagger, and listen to Nole's "spoiler" prayers too.

Rafa's US Open success is insane.

In the end, a poem which brings me to tears several times

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find, me unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.

The Chinese version?

有志者事竞成破釜沉舟百二秦关终属楚

苦心人天不负卧薪尝胆三千越甲可吞吴

TO INFINITY, AND GO ON!!!--Wimbledon Notes Day 2 & 3

2010-07-01T02:12:00.002-04:00

今天（2010-6-24）将因为John Isner和Nicolas Mahut的比赛而被载入史册。他们两个的大战使云变色。一场比赛在天气晴好的情况下被拖到第三天才能完赛。。。。

FACEBOOK 和校内上都成刷屏之势。我最喜欢的几条状态：

59 to 59... 9 hours of playing time and no one has won... yet

soccer players need to take a lesson from tennis: there are no ties, just keep playing until someone drops.

网球打到 59：59，堪比张飞夜战马超于葭萌关

Rafa在FB上留言：watching isner-mahut, UNBELIEVEABLE!!

没文化的小威在Twitter上：All I can say about John Isners match- WOW

罗迪克不知如何表达惊讶：really really cant believe the match that took place..... will never ever ever happen again... unreal!

而且总是有他的sardonic humor: seriously..... doesnt anyone have to pee? umpires included.

以和吓唬裁判为乐的麦肯罗在BBC解说时同情裁判："This is one of the few times where I feel bad for the umpire,"

德约科维奇说 "Maybe they should agree on playing a tiebreak if it's 50-all,"

另据在现场看到天荒地老的张奔斗转述麦肯罗的话 “他惊叹当今球员的体能，同时他表示这场比赛回使他们两人的运动寿命减少半年”。

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似乎有很多要说的。

第一，技术统计上，我不得不渲染一番。That is what this match will be remembered for.

The match has not only broken but smashed virutally all longest match records. It is exactly ten hours old at this point—the only match in competitive history to go beyond nine, eight or seven hours.

Records set

Longest match: 10 hours (so far)
Previous record: 6 hours, 33 minutes Fabrice Santoro def. Arnaud Clement 1R French Open 2004

Most games played in a match: 163 (注：等于是打了将近13盘！！）

Previous singles record: 112 Pancho Gonzalez （阿加西姐夫，上旋球创始人）def. Charlie Pasarell Wimbledon 1969
Previous doubles record: 122 Stan Smith/Erik Van Dillen def. Patricio Cornejo/Jamie Fillol Davis Cup, 1973

Longest men's singles set in history: 59-59

Previous record: 25-23 John Newombe def. Marty Reissen U.S. Open, 1969

（注：还记得2003年澳网罗迪克和阿诺乌依的21-19么？）

Most aces served in a match: 98, Isner. 94, Mahut

Previous record: 78 aces Ivo Karlovic, l. to Radek Stepanek SF Davis Cup, 2009

（注：大满贯赛的单场ACE记录保持着也是卡洛维奇，09年法网的55个。此外，令人印象深刻的还有Pim-Pim Joachim Johansson 05年澳网对阵阿加西四盘抢七负的比赛，发出了51个ACE。03年温网，Mark Philippoussis也是对阵阿加西，the match of his career，发出46 ACES五盘胜。另外，去年温布顿决赛，费德勒也发出了50 ACES。主要都是在第五盘。）

Match statistics

Matchpoints for Isner: 4

Break points for Mahut in the fifth set: 2
Winners hit: 333 for Isner, 318 for Mahut
Unforced errors: 53 for Isner, 56 for Mahut
Aces: 98 for Isner, 94 for Mahut
Points won: 428 for Isner, 448 for Mahut
First medical treatment: 57-56 for Mahut (bandage repair)

First bathroom break: 58-58

第二，我想有必要说些网易和新浪记者不说的，介绍一下我所知道的这两位选手。

John Isner是一个成长轨迹很另类的选手。他来自一个比较富裕的家庭，父亲是营造商，母亲是家庭主妇，他吃母亲做的一日三餐一直到年大学。他从来没想过不读完本科就去打网球为生(Source: the bodo article "the articulate bulldog")。所以他真正正念了四年大学（2004-07），在Univerity of Georgia 以speech communication专业文学学士毕业。最后一年率领校队拿下了NCAA冠军，个人拿下单打亚军，双打冠军。大学生球员的生活和职业球员还是很不一样，最大的不一样大概就是在大学城会有很多艳遇，而职业球员的生活是孤单饥渴的。拥有发球，正手，和高中大学八年校队的磨练，他在职业赛迅速打开局面，现在已经来到世界前25名。他给我印象最深的是两场五盘大战——去年在US OPEN那个梦剧场，决胜盘抢七（只有US OPEN采取此制度）战胜罗迪克，以及今年戴维斯杯客场对德约科维奇，红土上战满五盘输球。John Isner 2.06米的身高是他出类拔萃的基础。他打的大鹏展翅的网球。发球-正手的one-two punch潇洒，由于双打打得很多，网前手感很好。接发球差，而移动灵活性由于受到身高的限制也不怎么样。天生的万人迷（至少我这么认为）造型和阳光气质通过一组照片来表现吧。

Nicolas Mahut似乎是一位善打草地的球员。职业生涯仅有的两次巡回赛单打决赛经历都是来自草地。我看过他和罗迪克的女王杯决赛，罗迪克第三盘抢七险胜。他也是 1.90米的身高，正手和单手反手都非常犀利。而且，他有那么一点索德林般的悍匪气质。

最后，来探讨一下为什么比赛可以打得这么长以及为什么打得这么长是不可思议的。

客观上有很多理由使得这场比赛变为可能：

首先，第一天的时候，这是最后一场比赛，有了“因天色过暗延期”。当时比赛进行了两个多小时。Mahut 2-1领先。

第二，伦敦气候凉爽，湿度不大。对球员体能的要求比墨尔本和纽约少很多。

第三，草地网球保发球局容易。

第四，这两个人的发球都太好，而接发球水平，尤其是Isner，太差，以致形成deadlock。

但是，“不可思议”更多。

两位都是非常高大的选手，大家都知道，人高马大的人在来回跑动后是小个子更容易累的——长跑的根本没有1.8以上很多肌肉的。这两位居然正常没抽筋没晕厥只有叫了医疗暂停（仅有一个医疗暂停也是体育道德高的表现），真的是奇迹。

破发球局并非不可能，我看的片段中，我似乎好几次嗅到了双方发球局的cracks，不知道是发球者神经太大条还是接发球者打出一个好球后就再没力打出第二第三个。那种能够结束比赛的flicker总是转瞬即止，始终没有 0-40那种死地。

John Isner看起来是完全的力竭，走都走不动了，表情非常痛苦。我不理解有了那种表情怎么可能还能撑着打40局。

不可思议他们怎么还能发出 190KMH+的发球，在30+/30+之后。
Mahut资格赛打上来的。我看了下面的记录，更加觉得他在重新定义人类体能极限！！！！！！

Mahut's last three matches
Current 1R: vs. Isner 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(7), 6-7(3), 59-59
Qualifying 3R: d. Stefan Koubek 6-7(8), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4

Qualifying 2R: d. Alex Bogdanovic 3-6, 6-3, 24-22

这场比赛对于除美网之后的大满贯决胜盘长盘决胜（一方必须连赢两局才可以获胜）的制度提出了合理的质疑。但是我十分希望，在唯转播商是从的美网改制之后，在 ATP废除大师赛决赛五盘三胜制，使得戴维斯杯和大满贯单打和温布顿男子双打成为唯一能看到五盘三胜制比赛的地方之后，不要再让这个传统成为电视转播商业化需要的牺牲品。因为比赛的伟大程度永远与它展开的深度正相关。还没有开头，就匆匆煞了尾，没有逼到那个极限，就要轮盘赌定胜负，是很大的遗憾。非金球制的加时赛和长盘决胜都是放宽限制，给人更多机会的制度。虽然，土耳其对克罗地亚，伊斯内尔对马胡，都是千载难逢，但也值得为这种千载难逢，保留这种制度，因为展现于体育中的人的精神，而并非技术，才是最能打动人心的。

Wimbledon's "NEVER-ENDING" match:

TO INFINITY, AND GO ON~~~~

Flags are still there---Wimbledon Notes Day 4, 5 and 6

2010-07-01T02:11:00.000-04:00

美国国歌歌词中有一句我每次听到都感觉摄人心魄

“Gave proof through the night

that our flag was still there”

Wimbledon经历了wacky的一周，一些听说过但从未看到过的，和从未听说过的，陆续无所畏惧的登场，力图以颠覆秩序的大冷门与Isner-Mahut试比娇。试想：如果昨天Petzschner真的爆掉了Rafa，或者 Roger在前两轮被击败了，Isner-Mahut必然会更早的被交付到档案馆。

秩序受到了严峻挑战，但终未被颠覆。Flags are still there!!Roger的发球和定力，Rafa一如既往的意志力让他们晋级第二周。但是他们面临着不同的前途。PH Mathieu和Soderling都是big hitters，在伤情扑朔迷离的情况下，Rafa要有坚决主动进攻的胆决方能过关；而Roger首先对阵实力不济的Melzer，还可以期待 Berdych的意外出局。

从上届世界杯以来的第一次，人们似乎并不是从第一天起就心心念念Roger-Rafa的终极对决。Roger的确出现了一些troubling signs，移动远不及当年，甚至去年，但是他第三轮似乎适度回应了质疑，不过不知道对手奉送胜利的成分有多大。Rafa的第二第三轮比赛连续1-2落后被拖入五盘。第二轮对Hasse，对手的神勇发挥是他不能左右的，他始终主控节奏，play cleanly and keep the points short表现出强烈的进取心，五盘也不到三小时。第三轮的Petzschner真的是展现了为什么他可以排名世界三十九。和Hasse一样出色的发球和 explosive forehand，加上了更好的战术意识和连续进攻能力，比赛看起来更焦灼。Rafa赛中显出的左臂肌肉和膝盖不适令人大大调低他夺冠的几率。因为他没有完美的状态，在Wimbledon对阵Murray或者Soderling，胜算不大。伤停是真是假？他伤停之后移动完美，立刻破发，但是他赛后宣布退出下月的戴维斯杯赛休养，还大爆其迈阿密赛和蒙特卡洛赛后受伤的情形。我想，不管怎样，自爆伤情是非常不智的，因为那样只能让你的对手增强击败你的信念。隐藏伤情，是顶尖选手保持震慑力和神秘感的重要手段。Roger对于 mono和背伤的处理就是很好的例子。

不管怎样，似乎不少人，包括我，已经做好了没有Roger也没有Rafa的Wimbledon决赛的准备，虽然那会是莫大的遗憾，也必然会大大降低比赛的观赏性和历史意义。

在那些flags中，两个Andy的状态都不错。女王的驾临似乎给 Murray带来了好运，苏格兰人职业生涯第二次在大满贯前三轮不失一盘（第一次是在今年澳网）and never went close to lose one。他让我琢磨不定，因为每次觉得IT IS HIS TIME的时候，他总是让我失望。而且和他所最痛恨的英格兰（足球）队一样，他在最关键的时刻，总是没有那种冲破压力，疯狂进攻的胆决。在英格兰队出局之后，全英国的压力更加集中地聚于他肩。击败Roger，把“since 1936”的重担once and for all地抛掉将是最好的戏码，但需要他在周一对阵Sam给我这个信心。

而the American Andy对阵Llorda和Kohlschreiber都顺利经过了考验。四盘拿下完全是意料之中。周一他恐怕是心态最放松的一个。

在有 ESPN3.COM之前从来看不到的双打也出现了一个冷门，英国的一对选手击败了世界排名第一，卫冕冠军Zimojic+Nester。。。

That's all for the first week in Wimbledon, a week full of drama, but without a single drop of rain.

在Wimbledon的诸多传统中，Middle Sunday是一个：为养护草坪计，除非下雨严重拖延赛程，第一周的星期日不安排比赛。所以也就造就了一天内进行男女各八场round of 16的Magic Monday. 因为签表，今年的Magic Monday是truly magical.

The Fall of Constantinople--Wimbledon Notes Day 9

2010-07-01T02:09:00.000-04:00

More entitled than Rome, the truly "city of eternity" is Constantinople. Its build-up came at the downfall of Rome, marking the start of the "Middle Ages". For more a thousand years, it is the biggest, crowdiest and the wealthiest city in the Western civilization. The walls of Constantinople could only be threatend by earthquakes.

If Roger Federer is a city, he would be Constantinople. A Leo, the Swiss Lion's first roar came after the official annoucement of Sampras "the Rome" :), with the fading Agassi and Kureten and the lackluster generation of Roddicks, Hewitts, Ferreros and Safins as background. He stormed though 2004 in an astonishing fashion that could only be matched by the erected monuments and the grand St Sofia cathedral in Constantinople.

The Byzantine emperors would fortify their capital with accumulated capital, extended frontiers and the Theodosius Wall (outskirt fortifications). In the case of Federer, something more impressive and admirable than the build-up of the empire was taking place analogously: his pursuit of perfection extremified--forehand, backhand, serve, and the basis of these all, the footwork. On court he waltzed, and then he blitzed. His unmatched God-given talent plus his never-stopping progress made onto his game transformed him into the untouchable, not only the king, but the God, except on clay. Thus his ambition extended. His forehand, and then his whole game changed, for Roland Garros, the only Grand Slam that evaded him.

The walls of Constantinople could only be threatend by earthquakes. Just as in the history where the earthquakes to Constantinople were only followed the speedy repairs and further fortifications, earthquakes like the Safin coup in AO 2005, Canas surprises in 2007(?), and later, Djokovic uprising in 2008, seemed only to strengthen him in retrospective. The closet analogy of Rafael Nadal on Roger "the Constantinople" will be "the Crusades": he produced severe damages, but later retreated. Ultimlatey the time, and his growing loss of direction with the Coupe des Mousquetaires (The Musketeers' Trophy) can beat him. And it takes some huge gun power from a Mehmed II, in this case, the 193cm Czech man, Tomas Berdych.

June 30, 2010 is the May 29, 1453 of tennis history. This day, on the most hallowed turf of this sport of string and bat, the colossal Swiss man, the king of grass, and undisputely the GOAT, fell, deterministically, to "Sultan" Tomas Berdych in four sets, ending his regime in Wimbledon, and with it, a "Middle Age" for tennis.

Yes, Roger's regime is a "Middle Age" of tennis. Both times are "Dark Ages" for dissidents, blissful, peaceful times for the pious. The All-Mighty (the Church/Federer) in the center and the trinity (trinity/the three Grand Slams: Oz, USO and Wimby Roger dominated) as its fortresses. He ruled the sport in such a suffocating manner that he amazing had records such as "beating the top 10 players for 26 consecutive times", "advancing to the Grand Slam semifinals for a consecutive 23 times". And he rules for so long that 99% of the post-1985 non-Americans don't even know who else has been the World Number One until August 2008.

All these can be declared "past" NOW. This Berdych win over Roger is the fall of Constantinople. When this great campaign started, Federer's serve was as reliable and steady as the Constantinople walls. He paid for his cracks in one game in the first set. But the inconsistency seemed over-comable. And few clues of a SHOCK. Berdych fired some brilliant gun powders, off both wings, and of course, with the serve. He put pressure on Roger's backhand consistently. And that he pulled himself out of the double-break deficit in the second set, thus not losing the momentum and gaining the "serve first" advantage proved to be crucial in this match.

The third set progressed into the unthinkable. The manner he missed and lost, his sluggish steps, and his futile "Come On"s, all the failed tries to really get into this match symbolized something unreversable. He never stepped up. He showed us what the subtle aging and slightly lower pace could lead to--the loss of magic power, the loss of seamless defense-offense transition, the completion of de-deification, on the ultimate altar!

For the fourth set, I begin to feel for all the Roger fans, like XHL. Both sides played great, and you would always imagine, if you watched LIVE, that Tomas would suddenly wake up, and falter, and choke, but no, it is a matured Berdych, and he is not in a dream. He has the nerves now, and he is recalling Athens 2004. I begin to like him, his shot-making. But still, Roger, with all his versatilities, had every chance to turn it back. But he couldn't make it. A brilliant last game ended with a signiature forehand incide-out winner for Berdych of the Czech Republic. Into the record books it goes: Berdych defeated Federer by 3 sets to 1, 4-6, 6-3, 1-6, 6-4, and it is Berdych vs Djokovic in the seminfinal.te

Ricky Martin Coming Out Of Closet

2010-03-30T00:25:00.001-04:00

And his personal website is currently un-available. lol

On Pope Benedict XVI

2010-03-28T19:02:00.005-04:00

It is never wise to bash a religious leader, but it is in my firm belief that they can be judged as well, just like other powerful men such as Obama or Bill Gates. And it is a little bit weird to me that people acknowledging Enlightenment would accept, embrace, worship and defend such a notion like "pope", "Dalai Lama" etc. (well, it is legitimate to say Tibetans spiritually haven't experienced an Enlightenment. Whether some other forces who force an Enlightenment on them should be demonized is open to debate) etc.

I am very far from Tibet, and Roman Catholics. And I don't assume AP or NYT to be just and impartial, without any hidden motive. But to me, this case adds to my impression that current Pope sucks.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/03/25/world/europe/20100325-priestabuse-timeline.html?ref=europe

One more time: "The Greatest Match"

2010-03-26T03:35:00.003-04:00

THE GREATEST MATCH

Federer vs Nadal, 2008 Wimbledon Final

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d71mmBZfSMs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cpGhZanBV8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDZD42zNLQ0

On The Health Care Reform

2010-03-22T18:56:00.002-04:00

As I expected, Professor Smith opposed this bill. But very surprisingly, he mentioned his support of a sustainable universal health care.

Here are some important facts about the health care legislation that was passed in U.S. House of Representatives yesterday after two years of annoying politics, along with some background knowledge.

1- This bill does NOT include a public option or the "single-payer system".

["Public options" in these two years of debate, are plans

1) offered by the federal governments, 2) competing with private insurance plans in an internet based exchange or market place, 3) accessible to persons who are NOT covered by employer plans or by state insurance plans such as Medicare ONLY.

The plans would be financed ENTIRELY by premiums without subsidy.

Single-payer system is basically the "government takeover" of the provision of health care to some extents, i.e. government will use the taxes and premium it collects from the citizens to pay most, if not all, medical expenses of the population.]

2- Way of payment: Increases the Medicare payroll tax from 1.45% to 2.35% on incomes over $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for families. **Actually this is a change from 2.9% to 4.7%.

[The current Medicare payroll tax structure: 2.9% of wages without upper limit (1.45% by individuals, 1.45% from employers, 2.9% for self-employed. But the 50-50 share means nothing. The actual tax incidence depends on labor elasticity.) No FICA tax for university students.]

3- Expanding Medicaid to 133% of federal poverty level.

[Current policy: very complicated. I am not sure. Things I do know 1) the eligibility criteria vary a lot among states; 2) Being very poor alone does NOT make one automatically eligible for Medicaid. Number of people that may benefit from this expansion: remained to be checked.]

4- Regulation 1--No discrimination on "pre-existing conditions". Law now prohibited health insurers from refusing coverage or differentiating premium based on patients medical histories and/or gender.

5- Regulation 2--States-run health exchange.

Here "states" mean state governments, not "the nation state". State governments run the exchange, not "federal government"! The federal government will mandate that newly-created State insurance exchanges include at least two national plans that are created by the Office of Personnel Management, among which at least one will have to be a private non-profit plan.

6- Illegal immigrants: CAN NOT take part in the exchange, even if they are willing to or can afford it.

7- Abortion: Theoretically, no federal money will be used for elective abortion unless "extreme" cases, like rape. etc.

Comments:

People don't know what need to know. People don't care what they should care. And they are easily deluded. Stupid protesters in front of the Capitol Hill these days....

It is uniquely American that a $871b/10 year bill will go down to fetuses. Americans are obsessed on "abortion".

This bill is a small step towards the right direction. But from Hilary Clinton's loss in the Democratic Primary, thus the burial of her demonized idea of the "government mandate of employer-provided health care" and such, to Obama's zero support on the "single-payer system" in the debate, to the kill of the "public option" in the Senate Bill, this reform has been full of compromise and regression. "econjeff"'s opinion that "The bill we got is a tax and spend bill, not an evidence and efficiency bill" makes some sense.

新华社的最新评论说明：事情正在起变化

2010-03-19T02:27:00.000-04:00

新华网河北香河3月19日电(记者郑道锦、公兵)韦迪不是一个“赌徒”，这点毫无疑问。也许有人对他敢公开说喜欢“举国体制”和“国奥踢中超” 的想法感到恐惧、排斥和疯狂，从而把他归结为又一个急功近利、胆大妄为的豪赌客，但是当他用逻辑清晰、合乎情理的语句将媒体关于国字号球队新组建方案的种种质疑一一化解时，你不得不承认，他对于自己所设计的新提案有着充分的自信和理性的思考，他更像是一个睿智而又充满魄力的改革者。

在18日首次公开他这份语惊四座的提案前，国内不少媒体和球迷都对国奥队要踢中甲联赛的消息持负面态度，称这是用举国体制来代替职业化的一种倒退，也是为了追求政绩工程的畸形产物，然而韦迪不仅没有妥协，反而公开推出了一份升级版计划：让国奥队直接去踢中超，国青队去踢中甲，国少队去踢中乙。这样的结果真是让人始料未及，而面对媒体的唇枪舌剑，韦迪的从容应答也展现了他在这个问题上的深思熟虑，不管是在理论上还是在实际操作上，韦迪对其新方案的合理性都有着很深的认识。

在理论上韦迪主要突破了几个思维定势，首先，他认为不能照搬西方职业化的模式，不能说西方模式就是好的，因为中国足球各方面的具体环境和西方都不一样，应该为了提高足球水平和未来的可持续发展尽快探索出一条有中国特色的新路；其次，他认为在中国职业联赛和国字号球队之间的平衡上可以充分发挥举国体制的优势，其实足球领域的举国体制和职业化都是对各种资源进行配置的方法，在现有职业化模式让许多国字号球员无法得到提高水平机会的情况下，用举国体制的优势可以充分调动闲置资源，让在各俱乐部打不上主力的各级国家队适龄球员多打比赛，提高水平，为此他还特别以日本、韩国的职业联赛中都有相当的“举国体制”痕迹为例，证明举国体制有其合理性。

第三，他强调各级国家队必须要统一技战术风格，而这就需要国奥队、国青队、国少队能有完整的队伍和多在一起打比赛的机会，不能各自为战，风格混乱；最后，他既否定了“政绩足球”和“出线足球”，又强调不能任由国字号球队水平下滑或长期停步不前，否则“排头兵”的萎靡会直接影响中国足球运动的大环境，球迷也将无法忍受。因此他强调不能“等、靠、要，”而是要积极探索出一条可以尽快提高水平的可持续发展新路。

在现实操作层面，韦迪的新方案在设计上也充分考虑到各方利益的平衡，从而尽可能地避免了矛盾：第一，各中超、中甲俱乐部只贡献出非主力适龄队员给国奥队，并且让国奥队只是在周中去和各个俱乐部踢客场比赛，这样就能保证联赛整体赛程不受影响，不会出现以前那种“联赛为国家队让路”的局面，也保证了俱乐部用人的利益；第二，国奥队参加中超联赛只计分，不计名次，这一方面让各中超球队为了积分而在对国奥队比赛时需要尽全力，又让国奥队的出现不影响俱乐部正常的名次和升降级；第三，在国奥队集训或比赛期间，各俱乐部只需要支付相关球员的基本工资，其他的奖金、津贴和保险等费用完全由中国足协负担，而俱乐部也可以在联赛中的比赛前向国奥队要人；第四，国奥队的选拔将扩大视野，而入选的球员在国奥队得到锻炼、增强实力其实也是对各俱乐部有利，因为他们仍然归属各俱乐部，等回归俱乐部后则能增强该俱乐部的实力；第五，整个方案将交给中超委员会和中甲委员会投票表决通过，这也能充分展现中国足协的民主管理，让各俱乐部对新方案有民主决策权。

总之，这份构思精巧的新方案并不是为了豪赌奥运会或世界杯，它没有让国字号球队与俱乐部之间出现许多利益冲突，又具备了相当强的灵活性，各级国字号球队的人员构成也将根据具体情况调整。韦迪表示，如果这份方案成功执行，将使得国奥队、国青队的球员每年能多踢十几场比赛，足协会再安排外国球队与国字号球队过招，让他们保证每年有40－50场比赛的机会，从而尽快提高水平。

尽管这份方案很有探索性和建设性，韦迪也对它的通过极有信心，但他也保持了相当的清醒，他说：“这份方案肯定会有问题，但是我不怕问题，问题出现了我们会想办法去积极解决问题。”

狂人名帅穆里尼奥在初到英超时曾有句名言：“我是一个特别的人。”结果他成功地塑造出一头令人胆寒的斯坦福桥蓝狮。而现在的韦迪也在时时地表现出他的特别之处，面对种种阻力、压力和保守观念，这位上任不到两个月的足管中心主任体现出了一个斗士的决心和改革者的魄力。尽管韦迪精心推出的新方案能否获得通过和效果如何还需要实践来检验，不过对于死水一潭的、充满了原始和迂腐气味的中国足球来说，正需要这样风格的领导者来冲击出别样的波澜。

评论：

套用在城门楼子上的画像的一句话，新华社的评论说明，“事情正在起变化”。习副总说了要抓足球，结果就是这样一个抓法。。。

我所谓这篇报道中，透露出“事情者在其变化”的意思，是指本文中一些标出的语句充分表现了中国新一代领导人对于“市场经济规律，合约自由精神，经济社会长治久安之基础”缺乏认识，洋务洋务，一百年后还是心心念念“中学为体，西学为用”。一百年前是维护一姓一族的专制，今朝是维护一党的专制。我忘记了是哪个大师驳斥林毅夫的的一句话，根本不存在什么“中国经济学”，中国的经济发展，不会为经济学带来新规律。这也许不完全对。解释一国奇异的发展，必然离不开该国奇异的禀赋。但是，改革开放“解放生产力、发展生产力”的实质就是告别计划经济，告别低效率的举国体制，走自由主义和laisser faire之路。政府的强力主导，基础设施建设以及金融管控等等，对于奠定基础，意义很大。但是我们没有问如果没有放开让大家去搞会是怎样，我们忘记了问顺水推舟是不是会更好。当然，什么都顺水推舟，改变了政府和民众的经历力量对比，自然对于维持一党专制不利，而这就是问题了。政府维系合法性的就是不断给予，但是我们总是忘记，政府本身不没有产能，这些建设无疑还是来自于税收，而且这些“基于所伴随的巨大浪费，无效率和贪污腐败，是不可忽略的一部分。现在，“国力强盛”了就忘记来时路，盲目自信，为所欲为，指鹿为马，从本质上背弃了改革开放的成功经验，认为政府是万能的，继续强化政府主导，挤出私人实业投资，并严重压抑企业家精神，我们所面临的将是一个越来越僵化、泡沫化、虚妄的经济。而社会的公平正义，环境的永续发展更是无从谈起。

Andy Murray is a bastard. And he is a cowardly bastard

2010-03-19T01:21:00.001-04:00

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/mar/17/john-lloyd-davis-cup-captain-resigns

http://sports.163.com/10/0319/00/623L042S00051CDG.html

请看报道。我写本文的缘起。。。

OK 因为穆雷以种种理由不参赛，只关心他优化自己的赛程挣钱挣积分——戴维斯杯每年的第一比赛日与大满贯冲突不大，主要是和北美两站大师赛有些冲突，英国已经一败再败，组别一降再降，似乎都比中国组别低了。前些天输给一个“只出健美冠军”（其实好像还有打几个篮球的）的立陶宛之后，John Lloyd终于不堪其辱辞去教练员一职。

他到好，为Lloyd一点好话不说，还开始对于下一任教练指手画脚。他不喜欢Greg Ruseski，后就自然被封杀出局；Tim Henman不愿担此任务多半是对Murray坏脾气和自私自利十分寒心；他还特别之处LTA不要抢他的教练。。。英国选了和穆雷心意的教练这家伙还是不会打戴维杯。。。

网球大腕左右一国戴维斯杯的教练人选甚至网协人事，古已有之。因为人事罢赛，男女都有。网坛大腕对于戴维斯/联合会杯，国家荣誉的淡漠也完全不少见。但是在在“一个人的球队”的国家，对呆维斯杯如此不负责任的，我没有见过。

穆雷的坏脾气，人品不咋样，没什么不好，对于费的出言不逊，是好的。Jimmy Conors, John McEnroe, Ivan Lendl, Boris Becker这些人都是些无良杂种。但关键是，他们嘴硬嘴坏，球拍更硬，他们在温布顿，在纽约，留下的壮丽故事为人津津乐道。Bad asses are cool. But Andy Murray is not only a bastard. He is a cowardly bastard.打不过人家还有如此多的这个那个的，的确让人爱不起来。

交手记录没有用的，要看大满贯交手记录。。。我以上的一切，在将来他击败Federer（或者Nadal也行。。）拿下大满贯冠军后，就完全作废。但是我看不到那一天。。

JCF_Gulbis_2010 Winter Games Encore

2010-02-28T19:59:00.003-05:00

JCF's dream run ended. Three finals in three weeks proved his burning desire and spectacular athleticism and conditioning at the age of 30. Three TITLES in threee weeks could mean much more. Many are amazed and begin to wonder: Can he make some noise in Roland Garros? We still have to look at see, to see his performance on the bigger stage like Monte Carlo and Rome? I still have the feeling that his "nature" makes him need more win to consolidate and believe. Of course, I am happy to see him back and see endurance and tenacity pay off. But on the other hand, he has nothing special, technically.

Gulbis won in Delray Beach for his maiden ATP title. It starts there. I really really hope he can rise. He ought to be a Masters level and Top 10 player at least.

2010 Winter Olympics is definitely the Winter Games I am most exposed to so far. It started with the undescribable tragedy of Nodar Kumaritashvili, reached its emotional peak (for myself) in the pair figure skating, mixed with the un-understandable defeat of a genius to an artistic hard-worker, pumped up with the sweeping performance of the Chinese short track team (women) against the Koreans, and concluded with a destiny fulfilled--Canada topped the gold medal count and won the gold medal in men's hockey tournament. It has been a great games, but we have to wait to see the long-term effect--mainly, the legacy of debt--to be evaluated, and unveiled.

Nationalism and the Reconstruction of Order in East Asia

2010-02-27T12:20:00.001-05:00

中国、日本、韩国的三角关系，是非常有趣的话题。我和Taejun对不了解情况的班上同学的解释就是 "Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, they hate one another". ——两两都是看不惯，两两都是互相揭露、取消、鄙视，更深层次的，两两都是积郁的复杂仇恨。

相比较日韩对于中国的了解，我们对于日韩的了解都不足。我们骨子里的轻视和“都是学我们”，“老子当年阔”的观念，影响着我们怎样写历史以及我们对历史的观感。我们所写的感受到的历史也是存在严重问题、对显示和未来有害的。在韩国的课本上，真的是世代传诵韩国五千年历史，中国四千多年，曾经东北都是韩国的土地，印刷术是多少多少年在韩国首创等等，但是同时，他们对于中国历史的了解，从三国水浒，到唐诗宋词，以及秦汉唐明，万里三大征和中国近代史，比我们对于韩国的三国、高丽大字等等了解的多很多。很自然，我们会说他们了解我们多是应该的，而他们和我们都一样，只不过是后进兼缩小版本，为什么要去关心。我们把朝鲜族算到五十六个民族里面，多少人认为他们就是我们一个特别会种稻米和做米糕的子集，但既然以前都一样，子集，现在怎么忽然变得在语言、文字、文化、风俗习惯上有如此大的差异？

我们忽略、无视朝鲜/韩国，在历史上是一个相对独立的单一民族地区。汉族文化似乎覆盖了整个原始文化。佛教造像、书画、服饰、文官典制、陶瓷艺术，一切的一切，“韩国的那些东西不就是中国的么”？但是，那片地方加上现今中国东北地区永远是韩人治韩的。他们只是借了我们的字，而从来没有讲我们的话。后来，他们发明了高丽大字。并且在历史上有很多不同的社会风俗，比如，在疯狂打杀过一阵后，在很近的古代极端重文轻武、积贫积弱。

这个问题对于日本更是严重。日本人热衷于汉文化，例子不胜枚举了吧。《霸王别姬》里真正懂戏的军官，和《庄子》《论语》信手拈来的我的同班同学。而另一方面，我们总是惯于想象“日本人，本来就是徐福后人，学我们几千年，看我们不行了转得快，学西方，结果反过来欺负我们”。我们京都古迹觉得像，看姬路、大阪城，居然还是觉得像。其实，人种上来讲，日本人和汉族中国人相差不小。当然，好事者必然要说“汉族中国人本来就是一个无法作为标杆的杂混概念，他已经融入了鲜卑匈奴羌氐羯契丹各种血液”，而且“考证日本人血统的人类学恐怕也是他们自大的编造”，好。我们来看日本的古代社会。日本的古代社会的发展历程，抛弃那些与中国飘渺中相似的名号，与欧洲相似度超过中国很多，贵族社会，实际上没有科举一说，真正的封建制【**中国在西周春秋时期是封建制，战国之后是一种无法用西方社会演化理论名字归纳的ancient civil society or ancient modern society（本观点李晓风师为启蒙，名词是我的胡乱创造）封建制定义请阅读法国人布吕赫《封建社会》前三章】。而且大量存在土著宗教，连传入的佛教也演化出不少仪式和思想。日本充其量是“有日本特色的汉文明”，其与汉文化的距离，参见“有中国特色的社会主义”与“西欧正统社会主义”的距离。

北海道上的虾夷人/阿伊鲁人，更是和我们生物/人类学上关系八丈远。

所以，心平气和地看历史，或者仔仔细细地去观光，你就发现：很简单，他们和我们如此不同，从传统到现代，他们原来不可能之只是洗脑学我们，我们从来完全“征服和覆盖”了他们。我们是不同的，他们是独立的，朝鲜是我们的外围政权，朝贡与承认的关系我不懂历史不知如何界定，但可以认为，朝鲜是独立的，vaguely by modern standard。韩国人说我们历史上从来没有被征服过，除却1895-1945，算是对的。而日本完全和中国就是独立的，没有附庸和卑躬的表示，“汉倭奴国王印”，只是汉天子自己的YY。

我们可以认为，日本韩国在历史上是独立发展的。这是在东亚政治语境下，我希望在中国国民中建立起来的正确观念。对于日韩，我是祖宗的国家主义是危险和错误的。汉族文明善于用物质和文化消弭和同化闯进来的入侵者，另外，不在意在外围大破大立，彻底根除，直接统治。也许这里面有很多历史细节可以争辩，但是这个性格判断大抵正确。

这不代表我们以前客观，近代国家化以来自大。但是古代的自大，那些昭陵勒石和波斯浮雕，与近代不同。我们把对一家人（或者说一个统治集团）的夸耀和傲气赋予给了一个想象的共同体。民族国家化在日韩怎么实现的，我并不很清楚。但是在中国，恐怕是孙中山等的远见（否则五道杠是没有的，惟铁血十八星而已）、五四运动肇始、蒋介石时期巩固强化，共产党时期大加强化（本判断有待商榷！）。我说国府时期已经形成的观点来源于我对于当时知识分子言论和心境九牛一毛的了解，还有各种运动和抗日战争时的public sentiment。民族国家是一个想象的共同体。人们为此掉泪送命，而认为理所应当，这成为一种强大的力量。二十世纪上半叶，日本的国家主义暴虐强烈激发了中国的国家主义，烧热还被压抑中的韩国的国家主义。在1945年后，历史曾经给中国了一个很美好的机会。美国在付出惨痛代价击败日本之后，虽然决定不废除天皇制，只是罢黜国家神道而非根除神道整体，但是他们确乎把日本定位为一个“亚洲中等国家”——以当时缅甸为标准。美国希望中国成为东亚堡垒和主导国。如果当时国共两党能够达成不可能达成的“共治”协议，一个美国主导，中国为中心的东亚秩序，与现今现实的东亚秩序可谓天渊之别。中国在美国最需要它的时候，变红了。之后，因为意识形态对抗，相当长的一段时期内东亚秩序变成了美国扶持、日本主导，封锁共产中国、南北韩紧张对立的格局。而在其中，美国不信任的中国，是最大的输家（当时阶段）。日本一方面协助遏制，一方面占尽亲缘和地缘优势与中美贸易，吃里扒外，大赚大发。

共产党解除了部分生产关系桎梏之后，中国成为世界最庞大yet最具增长潜力的经济体可能在我PhD 毕业前就成为现实。韩国经济一些方面强大，另很多地方还是small open economy.还是时有不稳之虞；日本制造业的技术优势依然强大、无可比拟，但国家陷入似乎无法逆转的迟暮和债务深渊中。这种背景下，东亚秩序的重建势在必行。当今在三国都日益高涨的民族国家主义，使得这种重建背负上了很强的失败的危险。我认为，东亚地缘的冲突是中国最现实的威胁。美国在最是实质指标都退居第二之后，它第二的位置似乎稳固。而且，在“自由”旗帜和其怀疑政府的政治传统（导致不会铺张福利或是民粹掌权）下，它的人力资源优势和发展潜力将持续存在，如果形成美国敌视中国，为恢复东亚主导权默许日本“正常国家化”和国家主义无限制发挥，对于中国将非常不利。

美国为何敌视中国？这并非是很多人所描绘的那样，美国人天生歧视仇恨和鄙夷中国和中国人，美国政府就是要百般掣肘中国发展因为中国发展了，美国就会受损害。美国那种在日本崛起时没有的更深刻的不安以及由此引起的妖魔化，是来源于“一个如此强大的国家却和我们想的不一样”——它并非一个民主国家，它会做出什么事情来? 如果中国民主化，美国敌视中国，不惜养狼屠龙的可能性就会大大降低。不承认美国对东亚的霸权却承认美国的价值，这是可以做到的。事实上，一个弱化了国家主义，有更多common ground的东亚是最理想的东亚，这在历史上“可能”能达到：就是美国更加彻底的打垮并重建日本，灌注以其更多的美国价值观。而这一切在中国局势稳定的情况下完成。美国继续对一个名义民主、经济上弱小的中国施加影响。若干年后，中国和韩国民众自发的改造一党专政，实现宪政。等等。弱化国家主义，是解决国家利益冲突的很重要的条件。以上想象是靠外力弱化国家主义，事实上，通过个体觉醒，也可能实现：我们反思国家主义，反思为何本不同的我们认定“一个想象的共同体”。民族国家的本质牵涉到人权高于主权，还是主权高于人权的问题。如果一个国家不在你身后，你会怎样？答案是：你还可以是一个强大自由的人。这两种途径同样都是高度理想化，十分不切实际的。如何重建东亚秩序，现实的中的动态过程估计就是中日双方竞相结盟美国，而美国平衡实力，从中得利。

Horny MIT

2010-02-21T05:38:00.003-05:00

b看到一篇很有趣的文章，于是去MIT的校报上去查了查

那篇文章是关于MIT学生性生活调查的。详情请点击之这里。

这里面有一些背景知识：

MIT对于院所是按照缩写和数字代称的，原来并非清华、北航SB，工程学校的祖师爷就是这么干的……相关讯息请见这里。

几张有趣的图：

1- Anal sex popularity by living places

2- Virginity % by year

3-What counts as SEX?

此外，该校报的most read articles TOP 5如下

Sex@MIT: The Survey (10/30/09)
When it’s said and done,
will she spit it out or swallow? (2/16/10)
The Tech’s 2010 Sex Toy Giveaway (2/2/10)
I Don’t Need No Minute Man (2/2/10)
And The Vibrator Goes To… (2/12/10)

这篇文章高居榜首，而下面这几篇也都是重口味：

第二篇由口交后男生不会亲吻女生讨论起，题目是问：口交后，女生是吞下去，还是吐出来。

第三篇the title tells it all.

第四篇就是恩……所谓符合很多人想象的美国豪放女……看了就知道。

第五篇似乎是呼应第三篇的，情人节前一帮人饥渴、抱怨、发骚。

Yasukuni never ends

2010-02-21T02:13:00.003-05:00

This is a "highly controversial place" in the eyes of Westerners. But "controversial" is too vague and too aloof a word, as is the attitude towards WWII of the Japanese.

On the informal "Chinese New Year's Dinner", I just learned that Yoshi came from a diplomat family. Coming from a diplomat family and saying "I am not so familiar with the history", "that is the most diplomatic answer I've ever heard", as James or Max put it.

TJ once brilliantly summarized the public sentiment of the three countries: "Koreans, Chinese and Japanese, they all hate each other."

After some random surfing, I found this Space. This guy took many rarely-seen photos in the museum attached to Yasukuni--Yushukan.

http://jediliao.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!29FF4A5E063607DB!323.entry
http://jediliao.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!29FF4A5E063607DB!343.entry
http://jediliao.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!29FF4A5E063607DB!367.entry
http://jediliao.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!29FF4A5E063607DB!416.entry

The topic of Yasukuni never ends.

The Nirvana!!!!_Another Olympic moment

2010-02-16T00:26:00.001-05:00

Pang Qing and Tong Jian gave their very best "on this day", but this cannot match the Nirvana of a 18-year-long, 4-Olympics story of endeavor, redemption, and later, of love.

Shen/Zhao won gold and Pang/Tong won silver, China ended Russia's 44-year gold medal monopoly in the pair figure skating in a spectacular way. Another Olympic moment in history!

Pair figure skating is such a unique sport. It is beyond sports, as Zang said. It is so demanding and detail-oriented when you see this, yet so free-flowing when you watch it. It is about one-ness, evetually. That's where no one can match (our beloved) Shen/Zhao.

Olympics has some bias for "seniority". That's sometimes an ultimate test for atheletes. People like Xiong Ni, are the ones I admire. Such stories are few in China.

Lastly, from Beijing to Vancouver, watching Olympics on NBC is such an enjoyable experience, 100 times better than CCTV.

Two songs for Chinese New Year

2010-02-13T01:13:00.003-05:00

Actually,

Chinese Han as an identity, China as a civilization, China as a bounded entity....

It is perplexed.... I cannot declare something definite.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LQyyh1zc44

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7EAeINa9h8

Vancouver 2010: maybe too fast?

2010-02-12T23:52:00.007-05:00

Yesterday night, I planned to blog on Vancouver 2010. Now I am blogging it with a totally different mood.

NYT has been providing outstanding coverage even before the Games starts. I found this photo (on left) especially touching.

There are some commercials on Youtube. I am not particularly interested in CAN, but I found this one inspiring. For God's sake, it has been played on CBC since Beijing 2008!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x675GbJOxg

Hope and dynamics.

And I just knew yesterday, there is a super-handsome Chinese Canadian figure skater.
Enjoy one of his perfect showdown here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc2jXafZZws

But just hours ago, another young man's dream and hope ended abruptly and brutally, on the fastest luge track in the world, Whistler, especially built for this winter Games.

The details can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/12/sports/olympics/LUGEDEATH.html
And here (GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING!):
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35373302#35373302

Now, this photo--I hesitate whether to put it on, because this is not sth you want to see in Chinese New Year's Eve--leads us to the main discussion.

The Olympic motto reads "faster, higher, stronger". Are we going too fast?

I hung out with CK and TJ this evening and missed most of the opening ceremony. But I can feel from the words of the President of the Vancouver Games Organizing Committee that this tragedy casts pall over the Games.

Many winter sports greatly depends on "technology". The technologies can satisfy the human nature of winning, erecting new monuments of human spirit. But the way the technologies work--MORE (steroids, used for gaining muscles/strength/stamina), FASTER (many equipments in various sports, and field/track/swimming suits), HARSHER, naturally expose us, sexy, fit, yet so tender human bodies, to greater and more horrified dangers.

As ESPN headline reads "the Games must moves on", people tend to forget too easily, there will be newer, more frictionless luges developed after this accident; there will be faster tracks built just so that a Games can be remembered for "an event of record books"....Human lives, even in thousands (1989) or hundreds of thousands (1960-62), are often negligible under the name "FORWARD". The "FORWARD" onrush is always unstoppable, but maybe sometimes we should stop to think: whether we have the rights to choose, to choose not to go too fast.

Obama for spring commencement, Awesome

2010-02-12T00:41:00.003-05:00

From Michigan Daily:

President Barack Obama will deliver the spring 2010 commencement address at the University of Michigan, President Mary Sue Coleman announced today.

President Obama will receive an Honorary Doctor of Laws Degree.

"President Obama has captured the imagination and enthusiasm of many students with his inspiring words of hope and change. We are honored to welcome a leader of his distinction and look forward to his message," Coleman said. "We could not be happier for the graduates who will celebrate their academic achievements with the president of the United States."

The ceremony will be held at 10 a.m. May 1 in Michigan Stadium. The university awards degrees to about 3,500 undergraduate students at spring commencement, before an audience of more than 40,000. Ticket information will be released at a later date.

In Ann Arbor,
Presidential candidate JFK proposed the Peace Corp;
President LBJ made the first pledge to the "Great Society";
What will Obama deliver???
Looking forward to this PRESIDENTIAL visit!!!!!!

Strangely enough, it will only the fourth time in US history that a sitting president visits the University of Michigan.

The previous three were Bush I in May 1991, (our very own) Gerald Ford in September 1976, and the most famous one, LBJ in May 1964.

http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/speeches.hom/640522.asp

2010 Oz Open Commentary: China Takes Center Court (Part 1 and 2)

2010-02-01T00:19:00.003-05:00

The following two articles were written on Jan 29th, 2010. Chinese tennis attracted worldwide attention in Australian Open 2010: two female players advanced into the singles semifinals. This group of articles mean to discuss the brief history of Chinese tennis, its recent "institutional reform" and its significance in reforming the "central-planning, state-owned 'professional' sports system".

澳洲网球公开赛在我眼里，它是画面上最亮丽的一个大满贯，澳洲人的闲适、激情与欢乐，你从第一周日场比赛的上座率（因为第二周有国庆假期）清楚看到。原来，那里可以见到最完美的Agassi。最近几年出现的其他三个大满贯都没有的“非主办国的民族主义”（经常有些什么塞尔维亚、塞浦路斯球迷抄板凳拿棍子打架斗殴之类的。。。），也很有趣。

标榜自己为“亚太大满贯 (the Grand Slam of Asia Pacifics)”的澳洲公开赛，对于中国网球有特殊的意义。2000年易景茜在彼时新更名的Rod Laver Arena第三轮挑战卡普里亚蒂，成为第一个登上大满贯中央场地的中国人。那场比赛我没看。2005年李娜在澳网追平了易景茜的记录，夜场比赛在Rod Laver局促不安地输给了莎拉波娃0-6，2-6。当时我们感觉还很正常：这就是差距，输几局不是输啊，本来就没希望她赢。来年2006，在墨尔本传来特大惊喜，郑洁、晏紫石破天惊的胜利开创中国网球的新纪元。我在电脑前见证了面对彼时世界第一的Raymond/Stosur，挽救赛点，不可思议的胜利。那是我看的最激动人心的女双比赛，整场比赛心潮澎湃，胜利之后激动万分。我个人认为，她们的胜利比2004年李婷、孙甜甜在雅典无聊丑陋的胜利有强得多的说服力。但是，我也是很敬仰孙甜甜的。她2008年在澳洲公开赛与塞尔维亚双打专家Zimonjić合作，赢下混双冠军，完成了自己职业生涯的功德圆满（拿到过WTA巡回赛单打（这点比全运会n冠王彭帅强哦！）、双打冠军，大满贯冠军，奥运会金牌、全运会冠军（ironically, that what counts in CHN））。

2010 年的墨尔本挺风和日丽的，我看网球以来最凉爽的一届澳网。这届澳网上，李娜、郑洁双双打进了四强，创造了中国、乃至亚洲网球前所未有的记录。我并不知道在国内此事如何报道——本来网球也不是一个能激起民族主义狂热（patriotic fervor)的运动，单打独斗的个人主义是我喜欢它的一大原因——但是，作为一个中国的网球球迷，我是充满了喜悦与自豪。因为我全心希望这项我挚爱的运动能够从将军的运动、带着“贵族”标签的运动，西方人才打得了的运动，变成家喻户晓，很多人参与的运动。

她们的晋级历程我不过多评论。因为没有看比赛的人没有发言权。郑洁头三轮都是逆转胜，第三轮是Bartoli。李娜的对手就更是强手、美女大荟萃：扎维、汉图科娃、世界第四Wozniacki，7届大满贯得主Venus Williams。一句话，不是蒙的！

我们要探讨的是：她们为什么能成功？

（to be continued)

========================================

孙晋芳主任，这位优雅的女士，现在可是欣慰、如释重负加春风得意。去年美网后的全运会上，这位老女排的巾帼英豪备受代表毛泽东时代人事体制和生产关系，主张封闭集训，强调绝对服从，禁绝自由恋爱的乒乓沙皇蔡振华的指责和压力。在前天的全国体育局长会议上，她表示

http://sports.sohu.com/20100127/n269865512.shtml

她说的“单飞也能腾飞”，无疑是对中国众多体制改革中严重落后的体育事业的改革，指出了明路。她的“职业化是必然，是衡量是否是体育强国的标准”的观点，我想，值得很多领导同志深思。她的讲话中，表达的“人性化管理”、“根据队员需要合理安排赛程”、“利用激励机制，平衡为国增光和个人职业追求”等方针，就是李娜、郑洁成为闪耀墨尔本的原因。这就是我对于“她们为什么成功”的回答。我们这里先暂时不把讨论扩展到对于“举国体制”的讨论中。我们先就中国网球本身进行探讨。

中国原来有网球么？

很多人大概不了解新中国网球的历史，我也不甚了解。下面这篇2006年《体育画报》上文章，是不错的追述。

http://www.sichina.com/magazine/detail/675.html

整个国家都是封闭的，中国网球曾经和其他运动项目一样，封闭训练，全运争光，完全不参加国际比赛——不是陈云的“鸟笼”，而根本就是鲁迅的“铁房子”。所以这才出现文中李芳的第一次踏足温布顿时的种种感慨。其实，1980年代的中国网球根本不是什么李芳，那篇文章有意忽略了一个人——胡娜。她曾经和Zhao Ziyang一样，是中国媒体的一个禁忌。以至于我在STAR SPORTS听许乃仁一口一个“胡娜姐” “讲讲你当时和塞莱斯练球的经历”还以为她是个“台湾之光”。一个出身于网球世家的女孩，打遍全国无敌手，可是绝无机会出国参赛，在1983年利用在美国比赛联合会杯的机会叛逃美国，几经周折，终于做成了职业球员，踏上温布顿的草地，打入第三轮。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Na

http://sports.sohu.com/20090810/n265842568.shtml

孙主任所说的“生产关系”，对人的压制到了这种地步。

此后，1990年代的中国网球，一方面还是处于封闭训练为主，出国比赛很少模式，一方面也是再也没有出现胡娜那种有身高、有力量的优秀选手，处于停滞。这段历史我不太了解。

除却历史的回溯与考据，以个人记忆来说，我已经记不清楚，李婷孙甜甜之前，易景茜之外，中国网球还是有什么。中国网球的大发展，是以孙晋芳2004年春夏之交的到来为标志的。她并非没有威风，我在CHINA OPEN接近过她，感觉得到她的气场，但更多的是优雅。这些年来“狠批彭帅”、“炮轰李娜”这些标题也不是没有。但是，回过头来想一想，李娜炮轰“无出赛自由”的运动员管理体制的言论，彭帅对于奖金七三分成的不满“要求单飞”的观点（对不起我记不清楚哪年，所以一时找不到报道佐证），孙虽然媒体上做出了强硬表态，但还是明智接受了的。虽然也有全运上彭帅对郑洁时的让球风波（彭气不过，决胜盘公然防水，让大家看明白，赛后痛哭），但那个不知道是否孙有介入。与任人唯亲、嫉贤妒能的周继红不同，与只在乎自己的顶戴花铃，“一将功成万骨枯”的蔡振华不同，孙是一个有雅量，不偏心的领导者。更重要的是，她是一个大胆的改革者。

2005年，还出现过为了中国金花们备战全运退出温网的事情，但是，2008年，她已经思想开通让到让郑洁放手去打温布顿，而不在去纠结保金牌，让运动员关门苦练双打。（固然，这里有排名系统的问题：运动员多参赛，积分多，种子牌位高，抽签有利。但是，我的理论是，双打要配对默契，苦练还是有效。而且，单打金牌毕竟需要很多运气，与双打夺金难度不同。）期间，允许球员丈夫当教练，继而允许陪同外出旅行参赛（此前是主管教练和领导陪同，丈夫是体制外的，没有“名额”的）；并且不因为担心她们“分心单打”（啊！我写出来的时候都会觉得，这在网球界是多么可笑的，但是以唯金牌论的思想下就会这么想啊。）而限制球员向单打发展，后来专攻单打；允许金花“拆对”：郑洁、晏紫可以拆对，与外国人自由结合，彭帅更是早就和谢淑薇海峡组合了——这更是离经叛道，让蔡振华们不可理解了。最终，2009年，她公布了“单飞”计划。也就是，让郑洁、晏紫、彭帅、李娜等，像国外运动员一样自负盈亏（利益共享机制是网协抽8-12%奖金，这与之前的70-80%上交对于人的激励已经大不同），自己组建团队，自主选择赛程，自己去参赛。你可以讲，中国网球没有这么多人才，孙主任没有搞专制的资本。但是她完全可以不惜一切代价保个奥运金牌（当然，保不保成不是她可掌握）然后谋升官，或者就是指着李娜、郑洁，忽视青少年培养。一个“弱势项目”的管理者，是短视、专制，还是科学、民主，她对“说什么”，她不计较李娜为了美网放水全运会（去年的事，最后在美网进入八强，创造亚洲女球员在纽约的最佳纪录）和这两年来中国小花们的绽放（谁谁谁击败萨芬娜什么的，今年澳网韩馨蕴进入澳网正赛）已经是最好的答案。

孙晋芳“领导”下的中国网球，成绩如何？是不是如蔡振华所说，意志品质差了？成绩不稳定了？倒退了？

上文提到已经提到，郑洁、晏紫在2006年澳大利亚公开赛夺冠，之后，她们俩同年在温布顿又夺冠，晋级年终总决赛。

但是，双打毕竟是网球中的鸡肋。郑洁更多侧重单打，2008年在温布顿单打打进四强。长期稳定在前40，2008年时曾排进前20。

李娜在澳网、美网、和好几个WTA一级赛（就是女子大师赛）刷新中国人的记录。去年年终排名15。

彭帅是稳定性和心理比较差的。不过，还是有对阵小克、莎娃、伊万诺维奇、扬科维奇、萨芬娜、德娃等一系列值得称道的胜利，年终排名始终前50。

晏紫与郑洁在05、06年是最风靡的双打组合，晏紫因为打法的限制转单打困难，但她在07年后与彭帅、孙甜甜、庄佳容（台湾）都配对夺冠过。07年还在WTA一级赛加拿大公开赛打进四强。

........

粗粗写下中国网球的故事，我当然不是只是为孙主任歌功颂德——尽管个人上我是她的fans，在CHINA OPEN上去包厢对她表达过支持和敬意，要过她的签名——我一方面是想让大家知道，中国网球的历史，也是中国改革开放历程的一部分。另外一方面，是让大家看看孙所说的“人性化管理”、“根据队员需要合理安排赛程”、“利用激励机制，平衡为国增光和个人职业追求”是不是有效果。

单飞对于她俩在澳网的成功有什么作用？

参见http://blog.sina.com.cn/zhangbendou 的诸多报道。尤其是这一篇

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_483009d10100g713.html

她们不受制约地进行了系统的休赛期体能训练和热身赛事。对于体能和技术上都进行了专门的演练。同样重要的是，看台上有自己的团队，特别是丈夫的支持。

人总是看重成果的，在体育界尤其是这样。这样的成绩有运气成分，难道可以因为这几场比赛就无限拔高么？下节回来，来说明我对单飞长期的乐观预测。以及讨论它对于中国体育体制和其他国家主导的体制的意义。

（to be continued）

施公七十

2010-02-01T00:08:00.004-05:00

This article was written on Jan. 16th, for the birthday of Shih Ming-Teh.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shih_Ming-teh

施明德，他是我最二十岁以来最着迷，最敬仰，最推崇的人之一。

昨天，他七十岁。

他十六岁报考军校时即抱着推翻蒋家专制政权的“反心”，二十二岁的金门军官因创立军中的“台独联盟”被捕入狱，遭刑讯逼供，二十二岁开始满口假牙。

1962 起坐监到1977年，其中第一次婚变，那个在他入狱之初为其奔走、扬言自焚至感动狱卒狱官的女人嫁给了先于他出狱的他的“革命同志”，还限制他出狱后探视女儿。而在近几年还不断因为要钱未果，出书大爆其隐私——“原子弹”也就是一些施性欲强，在坐监还乱搞，写信中建议她学习口交之类的事情。（女人啊……:( ）

1978年出狱后罔顾“五年内不得犯两月以上徒刑，否则恢复终身监禁”，继续投身组建“没有党名的党”.1979年创立《美丽岛》杂志。年末12-10美丽岛事件爆发。易容潜逃28天后再被逮捕，之后就是那个流芳千古的“景美军法大审”。（见下图。可以辨认出陈菊、吕秀莲、黄信介、张俊雄这些人么？）施公笑对检查官，发表了「台灣應該獨立，而且事實上已經獨立三十多年了，現在的名字叫做中華民國。」「黨禁、報禁、戒嚴令、萬年國會是台灣民主化的四大害」的政治宣言书。被判处死刑，后因美国压力，改为无期徒刑。

1984年末或者1985年起，因为江南案开始无限期绝食，历时4年7个月余。先后被送到台北三軍總醫院強迫鼻胃管插管灌食共達3040次，创下世界纪录。

1987年7月15日，台灣正式解除自實施38年多的戒嚴令，蔣經國總統原擬對施採取減刑、假釋，但施明德宣稱自己無罪，不接受當局特赦與假釋，一再堅持「寧要尊嚴，不要赦免」。李登辉就职后對美麗島事件政治犯頒佈特赦令；他再次撕毀特赦令，堅持无条件釋放。李登輝宣布美麗島事件判決無效，施才終於結束絕食，同意被释放。施離開監禁場所對媒體所說的第一句話是；「忍耐是不夠的，還必須寬恕」。施一生堅持包容、寬恕、和解的特質，在此充分顯露。1989年在美国国会就台湾政局作证，讲出“我只带来信心”

我來這裡，不是來請求美國拯救我們台灣人民，或保護我們的基本人權。
我來這裡，不是要抨擊我們的台灣政府。
我來這裡，更不是想要哀求中華人民共和國尊重我們台灣人的自決權利。
我來這裡，我的行李只帶來一項訊息—
我們這一代台灣子女擁有絕對的信心。我們不會向任何強者叩頭。我們不會向任何壓迫者屈服。我們深信一定能依靠台灣人民自己的力量、智慧和能力，解決我們所面對的種種難題和挑戰。
并以“今天我雖然出席了這項聽證會，但是，身為一個台灣人，我認為自己不適合也不應該在另一個國家的國會裡，接受另一個國家國會議員的詢問或質問。我只願在其他私人的場合，答覆任何疑問。這是一項原則或立場的問題，希望能予體諒。”作结。

1993年发动游行，促总统直选，并顺利实现1996年总统直选。

1995年任民进党主席期间，发表“大和解”政纲，继续倡导族群宽恕与和谐社会。竞选“立法院长”，因为陈水扁系立委跑票，以一票之差败选，后被广泛认为这是陈为了遏阻施明德如日中天的威望以实权方式得以巩固的授意。

1996年民进党总统大选败选，辞去党主席，推动美丽岛口述历史研究，最终出版60多万字的《珍藏美麗島》，当时被认为是“迄今研究1970年代至1990年代，最完整的台灣民主發展史”。

阿扁执政后，参选立法委员和高雄市长未果。2006年8月，发动“百万人民倒扁运动”，自“美丽岛运动”后，再当总指挥。期间申明民主政体的程序正义，顶住可能演变成民众暴政的压力，坚持和平原则，不流血，不冲击总统府。“倒扁”后，施明德俨然成为CCTV4报道的重点对象和中共的统战重点，但是，他表示，只要飞弹一天不撤出，他不到、也不飞机过境中国大陆。

虽然我对他的印象只是断片——这也是我不在这里长篇大论的原因，但是我认为，

他是浪漫的革命者，忠诚的自由民主战士。

风流，高贵，坚韧不拔。

他所信仰的，除了台湾独立之外，都是我所认同（也许还不能说是信仰）的。

这是我推崇他的原因。

他真的配得上那《海阔天空》和《光辉岁月》。

Book-writing, English-using economists--on 2009 Nobel Econ Prize

2009-10-12T20:13:00.004-04:00

My first impression is "who is Ostrom?". That is of course absurd. As I see it now, these are (Ostrom and Williamson) serious and worthy choices.

I have admit that Professor Ostrom's name was off my head this noon. But when I was looking through her brilliant work "Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action" on Google Books, I was almost sure I encountered her in the "Intro to New Institutional Economics" course by 周其仁, one of the best courses I took in PKU.

My "lay-man" impression of Professor Williamson is that he is one of the "synthesizers" of New Institutional Economics. His comprehensive study of "hierarchical structure" in the economy is not "simple" and "clean", thus not very easy to follow and not as impressive as Olson or Coase. But I do remember I once tried very hard to read him, feeling him a giant on giants' shoulders.

Professor Ostrom and Professor Williamson's contributions can be best (arugbly) summarized in the press release here. (http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2009/press.html) Basically, their works remind us that "institutions" (non-individual players in the market) are not "marginal", "exogenous" (I could be wrong, but what this weird world means in economics, under many circumstances, is "out of our scope", "disregard it"), "pre-determined", as they are in the problem sets I am doing right now. They are real, crucial, thus very worth-interpreting. The intuition to take away from Ostrom's work is that finding "the tradedy of commons" (mostly on a piece of paper) and bringing up the "internalization prescription" may be over-simplistic. People are not stupid, people know the danger of "tradedy of commons", so they must do things to stop it, at least they should have tried. What did they do? And why did some of those work? Similarly, hierarchical structure is not something easy for aloof physicists to figure out. Yet they are so prominent in common lives. They are not there for nothing either. I couldn't recollect Williamson's comprehensive logics, but basically he examined the function and the functioning of the full-of-friction (what those physicists hate) hierarchical structures in solving conflicts and stabilizing.

Those physicists can think of these studies as a "deviation" or "derivative" of their fictionless world of homo economicus. But I think they are not. Assuming people to be something they are not will not, assuming the market to be something it is not, will never lead us to sensible analysis and good policies. Seeing "through" the reality is something really really difficult, but that should be the goal. Math? OK. But appealing to physicists' states of mind is not helpful.

What I feel unfortunate about nowadays economics are .... (omitted, I love this subject overall), it is therefore nice to have book-writing, common-sense-following, real-world-observing, English(as opposed to math)-and-graphs-user, Nobel economics Prize winners.

Hail to Elinor Ostrom from Indiana University (NOT University of Indiana!!), and Oliver Williamson from Berkeley!

Things that defines Ted K

2009-08-26T22:42:00.003-04:00

…
Mr. Kennedy was the last surviving brother of a generation of Kennedys that dominated American politics in the 1960s and that came to embody glamour, political idealism and untimely death. The Kennedy mystique — some call it the Kennedy myth — has held the imagination of the world for decades, and it came to rest on the sometimes too-narrow shoulders of the brother known as Teddy.
….
Born to one of the wealthiest American families, Mr. Kennedy spoke for the downtrodden in his public life while living the heedless private life of a playboy and a rake for many of his years. Dismissed early in his career as a lightweight and an unworthy successor to his revered brothers, he grew in stature over time by sheer longevity and by hewing to liberal principles while often crossing the partisan aisle to enact legislation. A man of unbridled appetites at times, he nevertheless brought a discipline to his public work that resulted in an impressive catalog of legislative achievement across a broad landscape of social policy.
…..

Although he was a leading spokesman for liberal issues and a favorite target of conservative fund-raising appeals, the hallmark of his legislative success was his ability to find Republican allies to get bills passed. Perhaps the last notable example was his work with President George W. Bush to pass No Child Left Behind, the education law pushed by Mr. Bush in 2001. He also co-sponsored immigration legislation with Senator John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee. One of his greatest friends and collaborators in the Senate was Orrin Hatch, the Utah Republican.
……
Mr. Kennedy had less impact on foreign policy than on domestic concerns, but when he spoke, his voice was influential. He led the Congressional effort to impose sanctions on South Africa over apartheid, pushed for peace in Northern Ireland, won a ban on arms sales to the dictatorship in Chile and denounced the Vietnam War. In 2002, he voted against authorizing the Iraq war; later, he called that opposition “the best vote I’ve made in my 44 years in the United States Senate.”
….
Mr. Kennedy struggled for much of his life with his weight, with alcohol and with persistent tales of womanizing. In an Easter break episode in 1991 in Palm Beach, Fla., he went out drinking with his son Patrick and a nephew, William Kennedy Smith, on the night that Mr. Smith was accused of raping a woman. Mr. Smith was prosecuted in a lurid trial that fall but was acquitted.
….
After graduating from Milton in 1950, where he showed a penchant for debating and sports but was otherwise an undistinguished student, Mr. Kennedy enrolled in Harvard, as had his father and brothers. It was at Harvard, in his freshman year, that he ran into the first of several personal troubles that were to dog him for the rest of his life: He persuaded another student to take his Spanish examination, got caught and was forced to leave the university.
…..
As James Sterling Young, the director of a Kennedy Oral History Project at the University of Virginia, said the catchphrase of that era was: “Most people grow up and go into politics. The Kennedys go into politics and then they grow up.”
…..
fate, and the Kennedy recklessness, intervened on July 18, 1969. Mr. Kennedy was at a party with several women who had been aides to Robert. The party, a liquor-soaked barbecue, was held at a rented cottage on Chappaquiddick Island, off Martha’s Vineyard. He left around midnight with Mary Jo Kopechne, 28, took a turn away from the ferry landing and drove the car off a narrow bridge on an isolated beach road. The car sank in eight feet of water, but he managed to escape. Miss Kopechne, a former campaign worker for Robert, drowned.
Mr. Kennedy did not report the accident to the authorities for almost 10 hours, explaining later that he had been so banged about by the crash that he had suffered a concussion, and that he had become so exhausted while trying to rescue Miss Kopechne that he had gone immediately to bed. A week later, he pleaded guilty to a charge of leaving the scene of an accident and was given a two-month suspended sentence.
But that was far from the end of the episode. Questions lingered in the minds of the Massachusetts authorities and of the general public. Why was the car on an isolated road? Had he been drinking? (Mr. Kennedy testified at an inquest that he had had two drinks.) What sort of relationship did Mr. Kennedy and Miss Kopechne have? Could she have been saved if he had sought help immediately? Why did the senator tell his political advisers about the accident before reporting it to the police?
…..

Freed at last of the expectation that he should and would seek the White House, Mr. Kennedy devoted himself fully to his day job in the Senate, where he had already led the fight for the 18-year-old vote, the abolition of the draft, deregulation of the airline and trucking industries, and the post-Watergate campaign finance legislation. He was deeply involved in renewals of the Voting Rights Act and the Fair Housing law of 1968. He helped establish the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. He built federal support for community health care centers, increased cancer research financing and helped create the Meals on Wheels program. He was a major proponent of a health and nutrition program for pregnant women and infants.
….
His most notable focus was civil rights, “still the unfinished business of America,” he often said. In 1982, he led a successful fight to defeat the Reagan administration’s effort to weaken the Voting Rights Act.
In one of those bipartisan alliances that were hallmarks of his legislative successes, Mr. Kennedy worked with Senator Bob Dole, Republican of Kansas, to secure passage of the voting rights measure, and Mr. Dole got most of the credit.
Perhaps his greatest success on civil rights came in 1990 with passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act, which required employers and public facilities to make “reasonable accommodation” for the disabled. When the bill was finally passed, Mr. Kennedy and others told how their views on the bill had been shaped by having relatives with disabilities. Mr. Kennedy cited his mentally disabled sister, Rosemary, and his son who had lost a leg to cancer.
Mr. Kennedy was one of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s strongest allies in their failed 1994 effort to enact national health insurance, a measure the senator had been pushing, in one form or another, since 1969.
But he kept pushing incremental reforms, and in 1997, teaming with Senator Hatch, Mr. Kennedy helped enact a landmark health care program for children in low-income families, a program now known as the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, or S-Chip.

…
He was a forceful and successful opponent of the confirmation of Robert H. Bork to the Supreme Court. In a speech delivered within minutes of President Ronald Reagan’s nomination of Mr. Bork in 1987, Mr. Kennedy made an attack that even friendly commentators called demagogic. Mr. Bork’s “extremist view of the Constitution,” he said, meant that “Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, and schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of government, and the doors of the federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of Americans.”

Daughter deficit--development and discrimination against women

2009-08-23T15:48:00.002-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/23/magazine/23FOB-idealab-t.html?ref=world

Major points:
Mechanisms through which economic development (better education, wealthier households, more power of women in families) could make things worse:
* Lower birth rates--births of daughters got even more serious;
* Technologies could help to discriminate the girls: abortions after ultra-sonic tests;
* Higher education and income levels generate more resources, development offers new opportunities to discriminate against living girls.

--> Overall, development equalizes gender, among other things, but it is important to push for changes in values too.

I am sure many women economists have contributed to this article. I am never interested in these. Nevertheless, it is interesting stuff.

2009 Cincy final and semifinals (men's)

2009-08-23T15:47:00.000-04:00

1- Murray vs Fed--"back to tactics". As Brad, Chris and Darren pointed out repeatedly, Roger Federer did two brilliant things he never did before against Murray: return to the center of the court and really stepped up on the second serve. This seems to be VERY effective. As Agassi says, "one great thing about tennis is that you dont need to play great to win, you only need to play better than your opponent", not to let your opponent play his game is sometimes easier than to show your best. Roger seemed to find the Achilles' heels of Murray, let's see how Murray gonna respond in their next match-up. One bad thing about Murray was his adaption/ability to "CHANGE" on court.

2- Rafa vs Nole--"Nole just too good". Just watched the second set. Maybe in the first Rafa couldnt catch up w/ Nole, in the second, Rafa definitely played comfortably, producing very good tennis. But Nole just too sharp, too pentrating. Again, his best show in months. I was expecting a thrilling final after that, but as it turned out, it was an anti-climax. The 4h-consecutive loss in a MASTERS final for the cute and once-defiant Serb.

3- Roger vs Nole, ---"First serve, man!" The first serve is crucial for Nole as he faces the big guns. It drove me mad when he just couldn't find it throughout the match. And he lacked the faith of hanging there from the start. Really disappointed about Nole's performance today. Roger was sharp, versatile and brutal, he could not wait to fire the first shot these days, which makes his game nicer (in my opinion), but he just couldn't keep up his level for very long on hard court these days. So if Nole has the mentality, he could tough it out, like he himself and Murray did in the spring.

Looking forward to US Open, We have at least 6 players who well deserve the trophy (Murray, Novak, del Potro, A-Rod, Rafa and the one and the only, Roger Federer). THE DRAW GONNA BE CRUCIAL!!

Murray the new world #2

2009-08-15T21:47:00.003-04:00

1- THINGS do change very quickly. It is very cruel. But missing a Wimbledon, losing the No.1 or No.2 ranking won't change who you are, and all those are trivial comparing to a healthy body. It is not really great pressure for Rafa. I really hope he sees all these this way. But he does have to rethink his schedule and have a new attitude to points, matches and tournaments.

2- Yet another great achievement for Andy Murray. Maybe many will see this breakthrough /progress coming too late. But I feel this might be better for him in the long run. Premature sex makes a relationship easily rotted, fame too easily gotten can lead to similar consequences for a career. Now he has got to #2, is #1 far? But on the other hand, every chance matters if you want to chase the history. Obviously, Murray is the strongest on the hard court after last year's US Open. Who conquers hard court conquers the tennis world. But why Rafa and Roger are still monopolize the headlines/ is he still not the focus? Because his mediocre performances in the majors. He lost one good chance in Melbourne, he was under too much pressure in Wimbledon, just as Tim Henman did. It still remains to be seen whether and how he gonna demonstrate his superiority in US Open. From now to next US Open (2010) can tell me who Murray really is.

3- A small "recession" for Djoker, he needs to regroup. He should work more in the gym. (A deep depression for Ana. Hard to tell when she will come back. )

4- Roddick, I think I understand what he thinks now: running a race against the clock, the age. His eagerness and earnestness translates into great improvement on techniques and more patience and composure on court, but those seem to wipe out the freshness he once has. He is so heavy, mentally. Today he lost another very close match to del Potro. H2H is now 0-3. His backhand is still fragile comparing to del Potro.

5- Federer. Hard to see the possibility that he wins another shield. He has passed his golden era on hard court too. But you can always recall his beautiful days on Grand Slams.

Chinese GDP

2009-08-12T17:09:00.002-04:00

The sum of the GDPs published by provincial governments are 1,400 billion RMB, or 9.9% more than the GDP published by the National Statistical Bureau.

Unemployment rate

2009-08-08T01:03:00.001-04:00

Firstly a good (and plain!) interpretation of the recently-published US unemployment rate:

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/not-as-bad-but-not-good/?hp

Key points:
*that is statistically unimportant given the sampling error in the household survey.

*In any case, it fell not because more people said they had jobs — employment was down in that survey — but because fewer people were still looking for work .

*the auto manufacturing business had added 28,200 workers. Added? That sure is not the impression you’d get from the reports coming from Detroit. ....It turns out those are seasonally adjusted numbers. .....

*The number of unemployed people who have been unemployed for 14 weeks or less was .... the lowest figure for that group since December. But the number unemployed for 15 weeks or more was 7.88 million, up 74 percent since December and the highest figure ever. ....more than a third of the unemployed have been out of work for at least 27 weeks. The average unemployed person had been jobless for less than 20 weeks at the end of last year. Now the figure is over 25 weeks.

*Is it good news that fewer people are losing their jobs? Yes. Is it bad news that the number of long-term unemployed is rising? Yes.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

To have a better understanding, one should remind how unemployment is defined and how unemployment rate is calculated, theoretically.

A very simple symbol ("u" if i m not mistaken) turns out to be pretty complicated empirically. The unemployment rate is collected through CPS, one of the 3 leading labor economics databases (US) for the reasons briefly explained on BLS website.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where

How is this work/project done?

http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/bdacodes.htm

The evolution:

http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/bhistory.htm

The questionairres can be found @

http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/bqestair.htm---not readable!

http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/intmanc4.htm

The sampling and weighting---**still pretty conceptual in some senses, but that's enough for most usages.

http://www.bls.census.gov/cps/bsampwgt.htm

The imputation--**N/A

The seasonal-adjusted algorithm---**N/A

Some people sniffed at this release. To this, my response is:Any data has room for politics but one should have faith in the quality of US data.

Data has room for "politics" because the ground/field work has so many to tackle, much more than what is in the theorists' minds. Like many other data, the (US) government never disclose how they finally get that final percentage (to the tenth). But overall, people tend to believe the US and UK data are credible, at least after the adjustments. (what in the news are normally "early release", which means tentative, the "finalized figures" come month(s) later) It probably relates to the tradition, the custom. It is interesting to see how vast the difference is between US, UK, Germany data and Italy and Spain's. Whether it is a well-functioned democracy matters too. Who believes the Chinese data on employment and growth rate?

Comeback

2009-08-08T00:59:00.002-04:00

I couldn't get access to this blog shortly after going back to China, because of the damned Internet censorship thing.

They blocked all foreign blogs (including those in Tennis.com!), Facebook, Google Picasa, Windows Live Space (temporarily, for one month roughly), GMail, Hotmail, (temporarily, during June 4 period), many media sites including BBC China etc.

What a hell it is!

John Rabe

2009-05-11T09:22:00.003-04:00

I have been in Beijing for several days. This afternoon I went to see a movie in a cinema in a newly-opened mega-mall near my home.

The movie is "John Rabe". The Chinese name is "Rabe's Diary". Based on his informative diary, it was about the experience of this businessman of Siemens during the notorious Nanking Massacre. He was not a normal figure, he served as the president of the International Safety Zone during the tragedy. His and a few other foreigners' efforts saved more than 200,000 lives.

Technically, it was an OK movie. B+ or B. The music is good. Several scenes are memorable. For instance, Rabe let in the flood of his workers and hurried them under the gigantic Nazi flag to escape the Japanese bombing. Nazi flag, a sign of evil and killing, became refuge and symbol of life and peace. Also, after his driver was beheaded, he was asked to choose among Chinese POWs one(s) to serve him (as a driver). He asked for 20. He walked among those soldiers, knowing his picks meant live or die for those men. ....

But I don't like the performance or the plots of Zhang Jingchu. Totally nonsense. Also, there are several scenes depicting people bursting into joy and cheers right after an escape. It might be what actually happened. But it made me feel uncomfortable: why joyful and cheerful? They seemed to feel the victory and begin to wave goodbye the tragedy. Have we/they succeeded? Should we begin to not to think about it as it is sth past?

Substantively, I feel the movie is much needed. John Rabe deserves much more credits than he actually has now. The "massacre generation" of Nanjingers remembered Rabe. They financially helped him after WWII, when he was very badly treated. But in the macro history texts, for decades, we forgot him unconsciously or ignored him consciously. He was buried in the dusts of history. It is good to pick him up and make his more renowned, FOR THE SAKE OF 200,000+ LIVES.

Also, this movie is great in the sense that it revealed extensively the war crimes committed by Prince Yasuhiko Asaka. For complicated reasons, in the Sino-Jap War propaganda in mainland China, we tend to cover up the crimes of this man, maybe because he was in the royal family. I only know him and his role in NK after going to college. Now we talk more and more about him, a good thing.

JFK Assassination

2009-04-28T06:14:00.004-04:00

1- Destroying the Single Bullet Theory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuzWy00JC6s

2- Two Men in Dallas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyvRfeLDsB4

3- History Channel program
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FF_kNbxtmE

Intriguing videos on 9/11

2009-04-28T02:22:00.004-04:00

I found these videos by accidents.

I was reading spine flu on NYT. They gave lots of credits to the Bush Administration for building up the "infrastructure" needed for defending a pandemic. I guess it was a move in systematic conducts in counter-terrorism.---Biological weapons are quite imaginable nowadays.

Then I wrote a brief memo on xiaonei about it. At the end of my thread, I commented God Bless America and wanted to add a video to end it. From searching for the patriotic hymn, the "chain reaction" led me to these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5pz1ZW59Ys

(There are four parts altogether.)

** My quick remarks:

There are really lots of doubts on 9/11. No doubt about it. Especially the basement explosions and vaporized Pentagon plane. But some accusations in the movie are crappy/sloppy themselves, which showed the desperate propaganda purpose of it itself.

If it is a conspiracy, there should be "witnesses" as well, people taking orders to set up the "explosions" etc etc. Where are they? They were all hidden or killed? Or died in 9/11?? It is unimaginable. There is no wall without leakage.

Ultimately, what is the incentive of U.S. government doing this? You can see Bush Administration exploited the media engines, made up evidences in front of the UNSC and used terrifying hard-line rhetoric to achieve their goals. Dark-box tortures might be the limit. To take such an extreme conduct such as bombing WTC is too risky for whatever political goals.

The "advanced knowledge theory" and the "inside job theory" were non-compatible, that is another thing.

Li'Ao On May-4 Movement

2009-04-28T02:08:00.003-04:00

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_559a7b1301009993.html

** This article was written on April 29th, 1989.:)

Resource-exhausted cities

2009-04-21T05:10:00.001-04:00

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/sd/2009-04-20/142217647589.shtml

A good insight news article.

"Though I was dead"

2009-04-18T14:57:00.004-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PJN0bohCTs

(This is the first part, choose on the right to see all 10 clips.)

An independent documentary on the death of Ms. Zhongyun Bian, the former General Secretary of CCP branch at and the tvice-principal of the Girl's High School affiliated to the Beijing Normal University, the "first" victim of the Cultural Revolution.

The following image is one page of the album published in 2007 by the same school for commemorating its 90th anniversary. On consecutive pages, there are Song Binbin, the "head of the Red Guard" at the School then who delicated the "Red Guard" armband to Mao Zedong, and Bian Zhongyun, the dead principal.

Song was treated as a famous alumni on the anniversary celebration it was said.

Novak's new Head commerial

2009-04-15T15:12:00.001-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKblFqURGB0

No comments on this.....

BONUS:

Some older and better tennis commercials:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRglUBRCxWE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh2EOlCZNss

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50x2NKheL_Y

Wimbledon 2008 official film

2009-04-12T04:49:00.003-04:00

Theatrical, historical

So enjoyable to watch!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92jbaMJfgg0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seFrJS1qfA8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH_I4ISOyHA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRqZpY7XXOg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x8X8K0XyfM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yApoau6Ubw

Flash back: the reason for Hawk-eye

2009-04-12T04:27:00.002-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtkKdCeQgQM

Really ridiculous!

It is pretty obvious that Serena is more composed and graceful in her earlier days!

Federer got married

2009-04-12T03:07:00.003-04:00

Sth not very surprised. No wedding photos released yet.

Krzysztof Kieslowski: Trois couleurs--Bleu

2009-04-12T03:03:00.003-04:00

Written on the afternoon of March 30th, 2009, to commemorate another two-hours spent with a girl I am fond of.

几年前在半梦半醒中在文史楼三层一堂英语听说课上看过，完全不懂。

一周前很巧合的机会又看了一遍，完全懂了，但还可以说完全不懂。

它很好。不过没有进入我的心灵。法国电影就是很慢地很美地很暧昧地讲一个超简单的故事，表达一些人最基本的一些感情。

这些东西总是给我“老调子已经唱完”的感觉，来回来去还是这些“男女之间”的事情。不过，人就是把无穷多的精力用于这些小事情，甚至比这更小的事情。

人性是如此狭隘，如此绝望和丧心病狂，如此容易忘记感恩，如此容易沉浸于仇恨情绪而丧失底线。我最近才发现。

10 predictions about the clay season

2009-04-12T03:02:00.002-04:00

Some are bold, some not, some are hardly predictions (as they are almost certain).

The order of predictions is totally random.

1- Rafael Nadal will get his 5th straight Roland Garros title.

2- The total number of sets Rafa will lose in Roland Garros should be no more than three.

3- Rafa will lose on clay at some point, just as last year.

4- Rafa won't play Madrid.

5- Roger Federer cannot reach French Open final this year.Murray, Verdasco or Djokovic might.

6- Roger can not win any title on clay this year.

7- Murray, del Potro, Verdasco, Tsonga and Monfils may be dangerous factors this year. Daveydenko cannot match his performance on clay last year.

8- We will have a new woman Grand Slam champion in Paris. Safina, Jankovic, Zvonerva, or Azarenka? My pick is Safina.

9- Williams sisters and Ana Ivanovic will go out in Paris before semifinal.

10- Maria Sharapova won't play Roland Garros.

Formosa Incident

2009-04-12T02:51:00.002-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0hITXBwOhU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPDLgHo752s

A little bit of history (in English):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Incident

and in Chinese:
http://findbook.tw/book/9789571330334/basic
http://www.nori.org.tw/read/index.html
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%BE%8E%E9%BA%97%E5%B3%B6%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6

A flashback of Guga Kuerten

2009-04-12T02:36:00.001-04:00

I think I need to begin storing the good video clips I came across on Youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e9vmyfoLeM

Guga's farewell.....

科以人重科亦重，人以科传人可知

2009-03-21T19:32:00.000-04:00

清朝的龚定庵很有才气，他可能是通奸被本妇毒死了，他有两句诗：科以人重科亦重，人以科传人可知，科是科举，好比我说做了秀才，我做了状元，我有头衔，科以人重科亦重，就是我是复旦大学毕业，可我今天我是毛泽东复旦大学毕业，毛泽东反过来影响了头衔，复旦大学的头衔也跟着重了。科以人重科亦重，因为人重要跟着重了。可是人以科传人可知，这个人什么都没有，说我是复旦毕业，靠着这个头衔混的，这种人什么样人我们都知道了。我的意思是告诉各位，你们不但要从复旦出来，还要超过复旦，这样子由于你们的光芒四射，对你们的学校才是真正的回馈。

-----李敖在复旦大学的演讲 2005-09-26 借以自勉

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

2009-03-21T19:27:00.001-04:00

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova---with such a ridiculous name，how can she make me remember her name? I am sorry for her....

One Grand Slam is not enough, as even now I could not spell Kuznetsova without a cheat-sheet……

Another piece on tennis girls' names:

Caroline Wozniacki, she is a super-nova promising Dane;

Aleksandra Woziniak, she is an older and not-so-promising Canadian.

Speechless right?

So it is not necessarily to see a "Woz...." be knocked out in the first round:) It is just not her the Dane Woz.

Wozniacki is pretty good looking btw.

Victoria Azarenka: Safina of 2009. Very sweet, and very tough.

Conceding to Rafa's Supremacy on Clay, Federer to skip Monte Carlo

2009-03-21T19:25:00.001-04:00

Roger Federer will skip Monte Carlo for the first time in his career, the organizers confirmed.

Comments:

Federer is conceding to "fate". Now he doesn't put "winning career Grand Slam" as his priority. He feels it is ok to accept Sampras' fate because he knows it will never ever be a doable thing to defeat Rafa in Roland Garros. So why bother Monte Carlo?

This year's Wimbledon gonna be BIG.

If for any reason Roger can't win it.... I would say his career is essentially over. It is impossible to imagine that he will make it to 2012 London Olympics if he doesn't win this year's Wimbledon.

From 2004-07, everyone will feel "wow, it is endless, greatest for ALL time". Now people finally realized how GREAT Sampras is:

He finished year-end No 1 for a consecutive 6 years (Federer 5);

He was on top of the ranking for a total of 286 weeks in his career (Federer 237 now).

These two records are "un-breakable" and they were made in a much much tougher environment.

Brave Heart

2009-03-21T19:22:00.003-04:00

Remember Braveheart?

Andy Murray , a Scot, seems to inherit the rebelious blood, the brave heart from his ancestors.Though having claimed "it is not my best" in earlier rounds, he still managed to defeat the once "all-mighty" Roger Federer for THE 4th CONSECUTIVE TIME 6-3, 4-6, 6-1.

Now he will face either Rafa or the American Andy in the final.

Trans-Siberia!!!

2009-03-17T04:05:00.001-04:00

I WANNA TO DO THIS THIS SUMMER!

http://www.seat61.com/Trans-Siberian.htm

http://hexun.com/beiguofengye/messageboard.html

http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/72790663.html

http://www.ycreview.com/?5/viewspace-1622.html

Ziyou

2009-03-16T12:09:00.004-04:00

http://you.video.sina.com.cn/b/1139687-1453091821.html （4 parts)

http://blog.sina.com.cn/ziyou (blog)

http://books.google.com/books?id=Eak7tw8Ual8C&printsec=frontcover&dq=%E8%B0%81%E7%9A%84%E9%9D%92%E6%98%A5%E6%9C%89%E6%88%91%E7%8B%82&ei=JXq-SZ6oNZD4MbaFgNgF (His first book)

http://paper.sznews.com/szwb/20060119/ca2121334.htm

http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kw=%D7%D3%D3%C8

And tons of materials online.....

Massachusetts's Health Plan Trial

2009-03-16T11:55:00.001-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/health/policy/16mass.html?_r=1&hp

"They want a new payment method that rewards prevention and the effective control of chronic disease, instead of the current system, which pays according to the quantity of care provided. By late spring, the commission is expected to recommend such a system to the legislature.

If Massachusetts becomes the first state to make this conversion, health policy experts argue that it would be as audacious an achievement as universal coverage. "

sth to think about

Immigrants trend

2009-03-14T14:07:00.002-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/10/us/20090310-immigration-explorer.html?hp

sth interesting to look at.

L.A. is more appealing to me after seeing this.

See also,

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/13/us/ELL-students.html?hp

Pi Day

2009-03-14T00:35:00.003-04:00

JESSICA WROTE:

Tomorrow is Pi Day (3/14) - this year officially recognized by the U.S. Congress!
So in honor of this great holiday please enjoy a slice of pie.
http://www.piday.org/

Jessica

PS - I also just learned that there is a Pi Approximation Day (observed on July 22), due to π being roughly equal to 22/7. Now that is dorky!
<http://www.piday.org/ >

CHARLIE REPLIED:

You could have yet another approximate pi day based on pi being (still more) roughly equal to 3.1.

It's too bad that none of the other important constants that one learns about in high school ("e" from calculus, Avagadro's number from Chem, or the speed of light from physics) lends itself to a culinary celebration. (Avagadro's avocado on 6.02.?? see it just doesn't work) If it did, we'd probably have more math/chem/physics majors...

**THE FOLLOWING IS THE KEY PART**

**FOLLOW IT CAREFULLY**

ON PIE DAY 2009, RDFZ Oversea Almuni Association will have a "founding assembly". The school boss Mrs Liu will be there. Also the proud Olympic gold medalists and those "elite almuni" along the East Coast. I found it really really weird though.

Boston? In a Harvard/MIT hall? With suits (maybe a rumor)? And broadcast to the current RDFZers?

It is just sooo much "show-off" and condescending.

It is like saying to the "next generation": "Hey, look! We are in Harvard and/or MIT. You are expected to come here." And there is sth implicit here "if you can not make it, nobody will care you."

Always care the top, and care only the top. Chinese officials to the atheletes, RDFZ heads to their students.... they are the same.

And even the very top may not be cared.

I remember on Sep 1 2004 (or Sep 2), I was asked to present the "New School-year opening ceremony" of RDFZ and speak to the students. I was excited about this.

But on the show, Mrs Liu just read the fucking miles-long list of students' prizes, boasting to those "九品芝麻官"s. The ceremony was so lengthy, wordy and boring that it made the standing at the backstage and waiting a suffer. Teachers came at least three times to tell us to curtail what planned to say. Ironically, i was there for a "rehearsal" the last afternoon..... we were asked to practice again and again under the supervision of Zhai (i believe), a guy i have little respect for. It make me feel like lip-syncing in the end. But eventually, I even didn't get the chance to "lip-syncing". Lang spoke as a "representative" of me and someone else. (I forgot who they were, maybe Wang and Ma and ... I really couldn't remember.) Lang deserved it for sure. He was the undisputable No 1 in Class of 2004. Measured by any "crystalized" merit back then. He is tremendously graceful and "official". But I really felt humiliated for not having a chance to speak to the crowd. Because what I intended to say then was all "thanks". I am so grateful for many of my teachers there. I would like to tell the youngsters to "cooperate"with the teachers, care them and be friends with them. Of course and some other advices.

ARE THEY LESS VALUABLE THAN THE LIST Mrs Liu was speaking to which the students were tired of listening ????

In Liu' mind, it just might be less valuable. And I think that was stupid and it was a hard-to-forget experience.

ANYWAY, if the Alumni Association is like an annual session just finished in Beijing, and if it will be held in Boston every year with "officials" presenting all the time, I can't imagine I will go to such event. But I believe it is not the case.

James Heckman on Life-Cycle Economics

2009-03-13T17:16:00.003-04:00

今天去听James Heckman的演讲，没感到太大气场。

1- 感觉到jargon和terminology是一件很讨厌的事情，想起晨琦的一些话，忽然觉得他说的很有道理。不要很简单的、common sense都能明白的东西非要包装到转几个弯才能理解……那一定不是最有深度最有价值的研究。

2- 题目是关于cognitive/non-cognitive ability on econ welfare，和intervention是否以及如何影响cognitive/non-cognitive ability development的。

很多结论。

大概就是（也许有误解）：

cognitive/non-cognitive ability其中之一和以弥补另外的，他们共同对很多东西有causal effect, income, health etc etc.....

cognitive ability几乎是“天生”的，从3到18岁不变，很难改变；

intervention 还是很有价值，它在于可以改变non-cognitive ability，使它可以弥补cognitive ability，相应的，很多nature（genetic的东西) 必须要有nurture (in this case maltreatment) 才能被激发出来为害；

人成长有critical period，很多东西adolescent remediation是无用或者十分costly的；

不同的政策目标会有不同different investment ratio(early vs older): 要提高教育水平，要重视前期，要降低犯罪的话，就要相应增大青春期的spending；

对于early age，没有equity/efficiency tradeoff，政府“应该”invest to help the most disadvantaged group；对于十几岁的来说就是invest on those who work out比较efficient了

可以归在labor下面？或者现在有了edu econ.....反正econ的边界真的很模糊……我很喜欢这个life-cycle econ这个叫法……

3- 谢宇（U-M的一个rock-star sociologist，应该有人知道他吧……估计都要（美国的）院士了）问了一个问题，就是关于parenting中文化、价值观的影响。显然，作为经济学家，Jim脑子里没有“文化、价值观”，反正就是糊弄过去了。他答问没展现出我欣赏的那种聪明。

我非常困当时（我现在已经逐渐形成睡眠一不足，干别的事没事，听讲就很容易睡着的情况），不过全场几乎没睡着，可能还是有点气场吧。

Grass-mud Horse--"Fuck your mother"

2009-03-12T13:28:00.003-04:00

Grass-mud Horse: "fuck your mother";

Ma Le Gobi: "You mother-fucker pussy";

River crabs: "harmony".

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/world/asia/12beast.html?_r=3&hp

I appreciate the insight and the far-reach of NYT very very much. A beacon of free and responsible journalism.

Chinese sexual revolution

2009-03-12T01:20:00.001-04:00

A CBC documentary: "The Cultural Revolution is over. The sexual revolution has begun..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQUkv9dB-Dw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JnMBSdPDHY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud04SbXyjjE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKdKBh35ezo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vofSvl-fqHU

Federer and Cahill 2

2009-03-11T19:37:00.003-04:00

I was shocked seeing this.

http://tennisworld.typepad.com/tennisworld/2009/03/breaking-news.html

Three things here (again the wordy Pete has the insight):

1- Roger is a "control-freak". Darren may not feel to have enough control to implement his vision. Again, the coach is there to teach, to infuse. Any teacher doesn't want a pupil refusing to listen and change.

2- Roger's base, Dubai, may not be a pleasant place to live in. Too distant from everywhere (AUS or USA), the formidable Islamic atmosphere, too luxurious and yet void for the stoic Aussie.

3- Another very important factor: the obese Mirka... She is omni-present and a control-freak too. I can't bear to reach her first in order to reach Roger either.

ANYWAY.....

PRAY FOR GOOD NEWS FROM LORCH HALL TMRW OR FRIDAY!!

Dalai Lama "hell on earth" speech

2009-03-11T00:04:00.004-04:00

1959年西藏镇暴，同年，夏威夷加入美国成为美国的第50个州。50年来，西藏总是暗潮汹涌，50年来，夏威夷平安喜乐，日益繁荣。我想，是否了解了解的夏威夷人加入融入美国的过程能对西藏的事情有所映照呢？对于台湾和西藏，绝大多数人都生活在bubble里，这点对于西藏问题更为严重。

对于西藏和台湾，北京都要记住这个对联

能攻心则反侧自消从古知兵非好战
不审势即宽严皆误后来治蜀要深思

Today is the fiftieth anniversary of the Tibetan people’s peaceful uprising against Communist China’s repression in Tibet. Since last March widespread peaceful protests (really?) have erupted across the whole of Tibet. Most of the participants were youths born and brought up after 1959, who have not seen or experienced a free Tibet. However, the fact that they were driven by a firm conviction to serve the cause of Tibet that has continued from generation to generation is indeed a matter of pride. It will serve as a source of inspiration for those in the international community who take keen interest in the issue of Tibet. We pay tribute and offer our prayers for all those who died, were tortured and suffered tremendous hardships, including during the crisis last year, for the cause of Tibet since our struggle began.

Around 1949, Communist forces began to enter north-eastern and eastern Tibet (Kham and Amdo) and by 1950, more than 5000 Tibetan soldiers had been killed. Taking the prevailing situation into account, the Chinese government chose a policy of peaceful liberation, which in 1951 led to the signing of the 17-point Agreement and its annexure. Since then, Tibet has come under the control of the People’s Republic of China. However, the Agreement clearly mentions that Tibet’s distinct religion, culture and traditional values would be protected.

Between 1954 and 1955, I met with most of the senior Chinese leaders in the Communist Party, government and military, led by Chairman Mao Zedong, in Beijing. When we discussed ways of achieving the social and economic development of Tibet, as well as maintaining Tibet’s religious and cultural heritage, Mao Zedong and all the other leaders agreed to establish a preparatory committee to pave the way for the implementation of the autonomous region, as stipulated in the Agreement, rather than establishing a military administrative commission. From about 1956 onwards, however, the situation took a turn for the worse with the imposition of ultra-leftist policies in Tibet. Consequently, the assurances given by higher authorities were not implemented on the ground. The forceful implementation of the so-called “democratic” reforms in the Kham and Amdo regions of Tibet, which did not accord with prevailing conditions, resulted in immense chaos and destruction. In Central Tibet, Chinese officials forcibly and deliberately violated the terms of the 17-point Agreement, and their heavy-handed tactics increased day by day. These desperate developments left the Tibetan people with no alternative but to launch a peaceful uprising on 10 March 1959. The Chinese authorities responded with unprecedented force that led to the killing, arrests and imprisonment of tens of thousands of Tibetans in the following months. Consequently, accompanied by a small party of Tibetan government officials including some Kalons (Cabinet Ministers), I escaped into exile in India. Thereafter, nearly a hundred thousand Tibetans fled into exile in India, Nepal and Bhutan. During the escape and the months that followed they faced unimaginable hardship, which is still fresh in Tibetan memory.

Having occupied Tibet, the Chinese Communist government carried out a series of repressive and violent campaigns that have included “democratic” reform, class struggle, communes, the Cultural Revolution, the imposition of martial law, and more recently the patriotic re-education and the strike hard campaigns. These thrust Tibetans into such depths of suffering and hardship that they literally experienced hell on earth. The immediate result of these campaigns was the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Tibetans. The lineage of the Buddha Dharma was severed. Thousands of religious and cultural centres such as monasteries, nunneries and temples were razed to the ground. Historical buildings and monuments were demolished. Natural resources have been indiscriminately exploited. Today, Tibet’s fragile environment has been polluted, massive deforestation has been carried out and wildlife, such as wild yaks and Tibetan antelopes, are being driven to extinction.

These 50 years have brought untold suffering and destruction to the land and people of Tibet. Even today, Tibetans in Tibet live in constant fear and the Chinese authorities remain constantly suspicious of them. Today, the religion, culture, language and identity, which successive generations of Tibetans have considered more precious than their lives, are nearing extinction; in short, the Tibetan people are regarded like criminals deserving to be put to death. The Tibetan people's tragedy was set out in the late Panchen Rinpoche's 70,000-character petition to the Chinese government in 1962. He raised it again in his speech in Shigatse in 1989 shortly before he died, when he said that what we have lost under Chinese communist rule far outweighs what we have gained. Many concerned and unbiased Tibetans have also spoken out about the hardships faced by the Tibetan people. Even Hu Yaobang, the Communist Party Secretary, when he arrived in Lhasa in 1980, clearly acknowledged these mistakes and asked the Tibetans for their forgiveness. Many infrastructural developments such as roads, airports, railways, and so forth, which seem to have brought progress to Tibetan areas, were really done with the political objective of sinicising Tibet at the huge cost of devastating the Tibetan environment and way of life.

As for the Tibetan refugees, although we initially faced many problems such as great differences of climate and language and difficulties earning our livelihood, we have been successful in re-establishing ourselves in exile. Due to the great generosity of our host countries, especially India, Tibetans have been able to live in freedom without fear. We have been able to earn a livelihood and uphold our religion and culture. We have been able to provide our children with both traditional and modern education, as well as engaging in efforts to resolve the Tibet issue. There have been other positive results too. Greater understanding of Tibetan Buddhism with its emphasis on compassion has made a positive contribution in many parts of the world.

Immediately after our arrival in exile we began to work on the promotion of democracy in the Tibetan community with the establishment of the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile in 1960. Since then, we have taken gradual steps on the path to democracy and today our exile administration has evolved into a fully functioning democracy with a written charter of its own and a legislative body. This is indeed something we can all be proud of.

Since 2001, we have instituted a system by which the political leadership of Tibetan exiles is directly elected through procedures similar to those in other democratic systems. Currently, the directly-elected Kalon Tripa's (Cabinet Chairperson) second term is underway.Consequently, my daily administrative responsibilities have reduced and today I am in a state of semi-retirement. However, to work for the just cause of Tibet is the responsibility of every Tibetan, and I will uphold this responsibility.

As a human being my main commitment is in the promotion of human values; this is what I consider the key factor for a happy life at the individual level, family level and community level. As a religious practitioner, my second commitment is the promotion of inter-religious harmony. My third commitment is of course the issue of Tibet due to my being a Tibetan with the name of the ‘Dalai Lama’, but more importantly it is due to the trust that Tibetans both inside and outside Tibet have placed in me. These are the three important commitments, which I always keep in mind.

In addition to looking after the well being of the exiled Tibetan community, which they have done quite well, the principal task of the Central Tibetan Administration has been to work towards the resolution of the issue of Tibet. Having laid out the mutually beneficial Middle-Way policy in 1974, we were ready to respond to Deng Xiaoping when he proposed talks in 1979. Many talks were conducted and fact-finding delegations dispatched. These, however, did not bear any concrete results and formal contacts eventually broke off in 1993.

Subsequently, in 1996-97, we conducted an opinion poll of the Tibetans in exile, and collected suggestions from Tibet wherever possible, on a proposed referendum, by which the Tibetan people were to determine the future course of our freedom struggle to their full satisfaction. Based on the outcome of the poll and the suggestions from Tibet, we decided to continue the policy of the Middle-Way.

Since the re-establishment of contacts in 2002, we have followed a policy of one official channel and one agenda and have held eight rounds of talks with the Chinese authorities. As a consequence, we presented a Memorandum on Genuine Autonomy for the Tibetan People, explaining how the conditions for national regional autonomy as set forth in the Chinese constitution would be met by the full implementation of its laws on autonomy. The Chinese insistence that we accept Tibet as having been a part of China since ancient times is not only inaccurate but also unreasonable. We cannot change the past no matter whether it was good or bad. Distorting history for political purposes is incorrect.

We need to look to the future and work for our mutual benefit. We Tibetans are looking for a legitimate and meaningful autonomy, an arrangement that would enable Tibetans to live within the framework of the People’s Republic of China. Fulfilling the aspirations of the Tibetan people will enable China to achieve stability and unity. From our side, we are not making any demands based on history. Looking back at history, there is no country in the world today, including China, whose territorial status has remained forever unchanged, nor can it remain unchanged.

Our aspiration that all Tibetans be brought under a single autonomous administration is in keeping with the very objective of the principle of national regional autonomy. It also fulfils the fundamental requirements of the Tibetan and Chinese peoples. The Chinese constitution and other related laws and regulations do not pose any obstacle to this and many leaders of the Chinese Central Government have accepted this genuine aspiration. When signing the 17-point Agreement, Premier Zhou Enlai acknowledged it as a reasonable demand. In 1956, when establishing the Preparatory Committee for the “Tibet Autonomous Region”, Vice-Premier Chen Yi pointing at a map said, if Lhasa could be made the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region, which included the Tibetan areas within the other provinces, it would contribute to the development of Tibet and friendship between the Tibetan and Chinese nationalities, a view shared by the late Panchen Rinpoche and many educated Tibetans, cadres among them. If Chinese leaders had any objections to our proposals, they could have provided reasons for them and suggested alternatives for our consideration, but they did not. I am disappointed that the Chinese authorities have not responded appropriately to our sincere efforts to implement the principle of meaningful national regional autonomy for all Tibetans, as set forth in the constitution of the People’s Republic of China.

Quite apart from the current process of Sino-Tibetan dialogue having achieved no concrete results, there has been a brutal crackdown on the Tibetan protests that have shaken the whole of Tibet since March last year. Therefore, in order to solicit public opinion as to what future course of action we should take, the Special Meeting of Tibetan exiles was convened in November 2008. Efforts were made to collect suggestions, as far as possible, from the Tibetans in Tibet as well. The outcome of this whole process was that a majority of Tibetans strongly supported the continuation of the Middle-Way policy. Therefore, we are now pursuing this policy with greater confidence and will continue our efforts towards achieving a meaningful national regional autonomy for all Tibetans.

From time immemorial, the Tibetan and Chinese peoples have been neighbours. In future too, we will have to live together. Therefore, it is most important for us to co-exist in friendship with each other.

Since the occupation of Tibet, Communist China has been publishing distorted propaganda about Tibet and its people. Consequently, there are, among the Chinese populace, not many who have a true understanding about Tibet. It is, in fact, very difficult for them to find the truth. There are also ultra-leftist Chinese leaders who have, since last March, been undertaking a huge propaganda effort with the intention of setting the Tibetan and Chinese peoples apart and creating animosity between them. Sadly, as a result, a negative impression of Tibetans has arisen in the minds of some of our Chinese brothers and sisters. Therefore, as I have repeatedly appealed before, I would like once again to urge our Chinese brothers and sisters not to be swayed by such propaganda, but, instead, to try to discover the facts about Tibet impartially, so as to prevent divisions among us. Tibetans should also continue to work for friendship with the Chinese people.

Looking back on 50 years in exile, we have witnessed many ups and downs. However, the fact that the Tibet issue is alive and the international community is taking growing interest in it is indeed an achievement. Seen from this perspective, I have no doubt that the justice of Tibet's cause will prevail, if we continue to tread the path of truth and non-violence.

As we commemorate 50 years in exile, it is most important that we express our deep gratitude to the governments and peoples of the various host countries in which we live. Not only do we abide by the laws of these host countries, but we also conduct ourselves in a way that we become an asset to these countries. Similarly, in our efforts to realise the cause of Tibet and uphold its religion and culture, we should craft our future vision and strategy by learning from our past experience.

I always say that we should hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. Whether we look at it from the global perspective or in the context of events in China, there are reasons for us to hope for a quick resolution of the issue of Tibet. However, we must also prepare ourselves well in case the Tibetan struggle goes on for a long time. For this, we must focus primarily on the education of our children and the nurturing of professionals in various fields. We should also raise awareness about the environment and health, and improve understanding and practice of non-violent methods among the general Tibetan population.

I would like to take this opportunity to express my heartfelt gratitude to the leaders and people of India, as well as its Central and State Governments, who despite whatever problems and obstacles they face, have provided invaluable support and assistance over the past 50 years to Tibetans in exile. Their kindness and generosity are immeasurable. I would also like to express my gratitude to the leaders, governments and peoples of the international community, as well as the various Tibet Support Groups, for their unstinting support.

May all sentient beings live in peace and happiness!

The Dalai Lama

10 March 2009

Sex in recessions

2009-03-09T11:24:00.003-04:00

On today's Michigan Daily there is an article about drinking in recession times. They didn't elaborate the"reason" but pointed out the correlation that alcoholic consumption would increase in recession times. The straight-forward story behind it was "life is tough, people use alcohol as a remedy to evade the reality or fight off the depression/boredom". Then how about sex?

Two contrasting hypotheses come to my mind.
1- Depressive mood makes men less enthusiastic about sex or more ED. ---> decreased sex acts'

2- Sex functions similarly as alcohol: people feel bad, bored and under pressure, they make love. A way of "venting".

Thinking this issue further, I guess the sex acts are more likely to show increase in recession times because:
1- More unemployment --> more crimes ---> more rapes (rapes are marginal in sizes though);
2-For sure masturbation will increase in recession times, reason? see No 2 above;
3- Women want to be pregnant so that they have a lower chance to be laid off (verify this in statute!), they have to have sex to be pregnant;

How to verify all these?

1- Proxy variables such as condom sales, lubricant sales? Maybe those are not closely related to what we want to measure.
2- Survey data may be the best and tere must be many on this topic. But to find a time series or comparable cross-sectional survey data might not be easy.
3- Also the birth rates? Nowadays more intercourse don't lead to more births necessarily, can we still judge a "horny period" from a baby boom? At least abortion cases should go hand in hand with sexual conducts....

I will come back to this days later.

Federer and Cahill

2009-03-09T00:47:00.003-04:00

Darren Cahill and Roger Federer AT LAST formed a coalition.

But now it is too early to judge how long and how successful this coalition will last. It is pretty obvious that it is very hard for Roger to really trusts a coach. On the Aussie's side, he feels obliged to help Andre in the summer (for WTT) and in the fall as well (for the Outback Series).

Thinking in economic way: their "status quo payoffs" are already very high, (see in the links for details) that makes them less willing to cooperation and the coalition is not stable.

If they really start it seriously, Darren faces the demanding task to help Roger achieve "satisfactory" (by Roger's standard!) results on the Continental clay (a masters shield and RG final at least), and more importantly, at Wimbledon. After this probation period, Andre might become a factor in this relationship.

This news is exciting. Can Darren do better than Tony? I remain "cautiously optimistic" on this. Darren is one of the most legendary tennis coaches in my opinion. Hopefully Roger gives him enough patience at the beginning and enough credits in the end.

Further readings if you are interested in this:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/134750-smoke-and-mirrors-the-federercahillagassi-merry-go-round

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/134434-federer-and-cahill-the-tennis-worlds-brangelina

NPC & CPPCC Misc 1: college with 1-yr military training?

2009-03-08T16:12:00.006-04:00

http://news.163.com/09/0308/05/53S3GJIE000136K8.html

Expand college education to five years with one-year military training at the beginning?

Some really reactionary ideas raised in CPPCC annual assembly.

The claimed benefits include:
good means of quality education (as opposed to "exam-oriented education");
good platform of more the needed patriotism and collectivism education to younger generation;
lower "employment pressure".

It really recalls me of the notorious "Peking University military training". After Tian Anmen Massacre 1989, a one-year military training before the real college education (as a means of "thought reconstruction",) was imposed on the incoming classes (Class of 1989, 1990 and 1991) of Peking University. The applicants pool of PKU noticeably worsened as a result, forcing the abandonment of the policy years later.

This is an absurd claim that will never ever be implemented. But you can imagine schools in HK, Singapore, UK and even US might welcome it.

Arthur Ashe the sage

2009-03-08T15:43:00.007-04:00

Arthur Ashe, in case you haven't known him, is a past African-American tennis legend who won Wimbledon (1975, def Jimmy Connors in the final), Australian and US Open in his career. On top of his tremendous success on court, he is better remembered for his great personality and his heroic actions off court.

His hereditary heart disease cut his career short. More tragically, he got AIDS through blood transfusion during one of his heart surgeries. Later when he was asked "Why does God have to select you for such a bad disease?" Ashe replied, "Over the world 50,000,000 children start playing tennis, 5,000,000 learn to play tennis, 500,000 learn professional tennis, 50,000 come to the circuit, 5,000 reach the Grand Slam, 50 reach Wimbledon, 4 to the semifinals, 2 to the finals. When I was holding a cup, I never asked God 'Why me?' And today in pain I should not be asking God, 'Why me?'"

Powerful powerful remarks.